Gale Warning 410, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 102302
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 10 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 59N 171W WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 47N 171W WILL DEEPEN TO 964 MB AND MOVE TO
NEAR 54N 160 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WEAKENS TO 970 MB AND MOVES
TO NEAR 59N 162W MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 10 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 10 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 10 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-111400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 10 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 111149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 51N 165W WILL DEEPEN TO 963 MB NEAR 54N 160W SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WEAKENS TO 966 MB NEAR 56N 158W EARLY MON MORNING
THEN TO 970 MB NEAR 59N 167W EARLY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 112307
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 54N 160W MOVES TO 58N 159W AND WEAKENS TO 973 MB
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER THEN MOVES TO 54N 175W AT 980 MB
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND 
SEAS E. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N TO NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST 
WINDS AND SEAS W. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   

$$

PKZ413-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS E. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W TO NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND 
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON...NE TO NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT N OF 56N. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI MAY 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY.  THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT
DEEPER WITH THE PRIMARY EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW  THE DIFFERENCE IS ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 8 MB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER MODELS
BUT POSITIONS ARE VERY CLOSE.  THE MODELS WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PRIBILOFS THEN REPLACE IT WITH A DEVELOPING
THEN OCCLUDING LOW FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY TUE MORNING.
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY MID WEEK  THE 12Z GSM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BEING ALMOST
20 MB DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A DOMINATE STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT WED THEN WEAKEN. THIS TRANSLATES TO A DEEP
POOL OF COLD PARKED OVER THE BERING AND A PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHWEST
JET OVER THE EASTERN NORTH GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALL NEXT WEEK. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY
MON.  THE PRIBILOF LOW WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE BY SAT NIGHT AS A NEW
LOW DEEPENS SOUTH OF UNALASKA THEN MOVES TO THE PRIBILOFS BY TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
RAIN WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND THE INTERIOR
WILL STAY DRY.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN SAT AND SUN AS THE GULF LOW
MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS AND A WEAK HIGH FORMS OVER NORTHERN COOK
INLET.  LES. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO KODIAK ISLAND SUN THEN TO THE
WESTERN NORTH GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DURING THE NIGHT. THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS REACHING AREAS LIKE MCGRATH.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS
BUT COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE
OR LESS. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUN TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND SUN
NIGHT AND MON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WE EXPECT A STRONG LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AND ONSHORE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL BY MID WEEK AS THE DEEP BERING SEA UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED EASTERN GULF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET PERSIST. STRONG
MARINE WINDS AND RAIN INLAND FROM THE COAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 351
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH MAY 08