Gale Warning 365, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 021125
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY LATE WED NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE 
AREA THU AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA LATE WED
NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM BY LATE THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-030200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.   

$$

PKZ155-030200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-030200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-030200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-030200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED APR 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT TUE APR 1 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY PROGRESSIVE...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PRESENT OVER THE STATE
WITH STRONG WEST TO EAST FLOW. THIS AFTERNOON AT UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH IS PRESENT WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE YUKON. THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AT
THE SURFACE...WITH TWO SURFACE TROUGH AXES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER KODIAK ISLAND...WITH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF BUOY 46001. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ARE
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THE OTHER TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED NORTH
SOUTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. A
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST FAVORING GFS WHERE
DISCREPANCIES ARISE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO
NEAR SEWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MOIST
AND MILD UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE PERSISTENT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE DECIDING WHEN AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION
REACHES THE NORMALLY DRIER AREAS FROM KENAI NORTHEAST TO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATSU VALLEY. WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
FINALLY REACH THESE AREAS...THOUGH IF IT DOES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE TOO WARM FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BERING...PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. MAIN CONCERN COMES TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN CAPES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORTLIVED
AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAKER LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND...WITH
THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING EAST FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE
MAINLAND...BRINGING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH ZONES 155 161 195.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 165 170 171 172 175 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY APR 08