Gale Warning 364, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE APR 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MORNING FORECASTS ARE BASED
ON THE 00Z GFS TO A LARGE EXTENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA WITH A NEARLY
FULL LATITUDE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...WITH A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. SUBTROPICAL JET IS SPLIT WITH MOST ENERGY
MORNING NORTH ALONG ABOUT 150 DEGREE LONGITUDE. POLAR JET RACING OUT
OF SIBERIA AT AROUND 55 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...CONSOLIDATING
SOMEWHAT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER ALASKA. AN OPEN WAVE CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK IS MOVING NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS JET ENERGY PUSHES INTO IT
(MAINLY FROM THE POLAR JET). INDEED WE ARE IN THE THROES OF A
PATTERN CHANGE...THOUGH SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO REACT. THE
WARMER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS TURNING TO SNOW FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND THIS COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL. FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BECOME
GRADUALLY MORE CYCLONIC THIS WEEK AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SETS
UP ALONG THE ALASKAN WEST COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY THE WEEKEND THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL BE FIRMLY ALONG THE
WEST COAST...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. THE
MODELS START TO GET ERRATIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 170 171 172 175 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG APR 08