Gale Warning 330, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 260400 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

UPDATED ZONE 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-261400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261400-
PASSAGE CANAL
800 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...N WIND
25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES SOUTH OF KATMAI BAY. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
SOUTH OF KATMAI BAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 261124
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-270200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-270200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH 60 HOURS. CONFIDENCE BEYOND 60 HOURS IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. MODELS STILL SEEM
TO BE AGGRESSIVE ON PUSHING LOWER PRESSURE INTO THE BERING SEA. SOUTH
EXTENT OF THE ICE EDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SLOW NORTH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
BERING SEA. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS OUT
WEST.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT
WEAKENS THU NIGHT AS THROUGH OVER SW ALASKA MOVES EAST. THE PATTERN
OVER THE BEING SEA IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO QUITE A CHANGE LATE THIS
WEAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE BERING SEA AND A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER 990S LOW CENTER NEAR
57N 146W. THE CENTER IS PICKED UP BY THE 18Z NAM AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST TONIGHT...BUT STAY WELL SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. EXPECT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO GALES WITH
APPROACH OF THIS CENTER. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO WILL CONTINUE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH GULF. PATCHY FOG OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING. GRADIENTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RELAX OVER THE WESTERN GULF WED AS THE LOW COMPLEX DRIFTS
SOUTH. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
WEEKEND WITH EAST MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH.

.WEST...BRISK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
AK PEN INTO WED. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AK PEN WITH ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATE WED AS RIDGE PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND GULF LOW WEAKENS. UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WED. SHOULD
BECOME MORE STABLE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA WED NIGHT AND THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE ALEUTIANS WED AND THU. LOW COMPLEX MOVEMENT FRI
AND SAT INTO THE BERING SEA IS STILL IN QUESTION...MAY SEE A MORE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL CONFIDENCE THIS TIME FRAME IS LOW. SO
WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 AND 155. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...150 155
               165 AND 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08