Brisk Wind Advisory 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 261130
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
COMPLEX WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...A 998 MB LOW MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WITH A
SECONDARY 1001 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA. 
$$

PKZ150-270200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT.   

$$

PKZ165-270200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-270200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-270200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-270200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT.  
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.  
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT.   

$$

PKZ179-270200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT.  
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH 60 HOURS. CONFIDENCE BEYOND 60 HOURS IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. MODELS STILL SEEM
TO BE AGGRESSIVE ON PUSHING LOWER PRESSURE INTO THE BERING SEA. SOUTH
EXTENT OF THE ICE EDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SLOW NORTH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
BERING SEA. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS OUT
WEST.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT
WEAKENS THU NIGHT AS THROUGH OVER SW ALASKA MOVES EAST. THE PATTERN
OVER THE BEING SEA IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO QUITE A CHANGE LATE THIS
WEAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE BERING SEA AND A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER 990S LOW CENTER NEAR
57N 146W. THE CENTER IS PICKED UP BY THE 18Z NAM AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST TONIGHT...BUT STAY WELL SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. EXPECT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO GALES WITH
APPROACH OF THIS CENTER. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO WILL CONTINUE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH GULF. PATCHY FOG OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING. GRADIENTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RELAX OVER THE WESTERN GULF WED AS THE LOW COMPLEX DRIFTS
SOUTH. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
WEEKEND WITH EAST MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH.

.WEST...BRISK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
AK PEN INTO WED. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AK PEN WITH ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATE WED AS RIDGE PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND GULF LOW WEAKENS. UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WED. SHOULD
BECOME MORE STABLE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA WED NIGHT AND THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE ALEUTIANS WED AND THU. LOW COMPLEX MOVEMENT FRI
AND SAT INTO THE BERING SEA IS STILL IN QUESTION...MAY SEE A MORE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL CONFIDENCE THIS TIME FRAME IS LOW. SO
WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 AND 155. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...150 155
               165 AND 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08