Gale Warning 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 161238 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 179

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 965 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 125 NM NORTHWEST 
OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN NIGHT AT 969 MB. A 983 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTH OF
AKHIOK WILL MOVE TO 75 NM EAST OF KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN 
MOVE INLAND NEAR SEWARD SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-170300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-170300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. EAST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-170300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-170300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE. A STRONG NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF ADAK IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVES AND WEAKER SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND MAINLY THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. ONE SUCH LOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER COOK INLET THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED WITH SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF...BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH KAMISHAK GAP
AND INTO COOK INLET AND KACHEMAK BAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS
ENJOYING A SHORTLIVED HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK
IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD GALES TO THE ALEUTIANS...AND SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. WARMER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW WORKS NORTHWARD...ALLOWING RAIN TO MIX IN OVER SOME AREAS.

THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK SLOWLY MOVES TO AROUND UNALASKA ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES TO JUST EAST OF KODIAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND TO NEAR SEWARD SATURDAY NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE LOW TO MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A PATH TO JUST EAST OF KODIAK
THEN NORTH TO AROUND SEWARD. MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE...AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MINOR FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SHORTLIVED...WITH ANOTHER WARM MOIST GULF LOW
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW LATE
TONIGHT TO KODIAK...CHANGING TO RAIN SATURDAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...BUT LIKE
KODIAK...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MANY IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
PRESENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THE WESTERN KENAI NORTHEAST TO THE MAT
VALLEY. THIS COULD CHANGE...HOWEVER...IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AGAIN. AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS...BUT MILD MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AND DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE PRESENT...KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS FROM BEING TOO
SIGNIFICANT. UNSETTLED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF ADAK WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
EAST FROM THE LOW AND MOVING NORTH. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE PRIBILOFS AS
THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. THE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES TO AROUND UNALASKA ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SUNDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
AROUND THE LOW...WITH RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE LOW EASTWARD...AND SNOW
SHOWERS WEST OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...BUT THERE IS SOME
HINT OF A BLOCKING HIGH SETTING BACK UP IN THE EASTERN BERING...WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE WESTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185 AND 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 120.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165
          170 172 175 176 179 351 352 411 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONES 130 140 141 165 179 185
          412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...

FOISY FEB 08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1154 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     BLIZZARD         VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
02/15/2008                                      AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
            SERVICE EMPLOYEES IN VALDEZ BETWEEN 4AM AND 10AM.
            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN THOMPSON PASS
            BY THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION DURING THE
            SAME PERIOD OF TIME.

0800 AM     BLIZZARD         HOMER                   59.64N 151.52W
02/15/2008                                      AK   ASOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED IN AND AROUND THE CITY
            OF HOMER FROM 11PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY
            MORNING.

&&

AMD