Storm Warning 70, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 151237
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON FAR SOUTH OF SAND POINT AND
MOVE TO 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON AT 987 MB BEFORE
DISSIPATING SAT EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

.TODAY...EAST WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
115 PM AST THU FEB 14 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAJOR LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED MUCH OF
THE ALASKA THE LAST 24 HOURS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. EXTREMELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALASKA PENINSULA AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE KODIAK ISLAND REGION. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...BUT CONTINUE ALONG KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY IS OBSERVING CONDITIONS APPROACHING BLIZZARD
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAVE
PLUMMETED THIS MORNING...DROPPING FROM THE 30S TO TEENS WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS. EASTERLY CHINOOK WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KEEPING THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
DRY. COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE CHANGED TO MAINLY RAIN WHILE SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE UPSLOPE AREA OF THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. A NEW
LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A
VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM RUSSIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS KEEPING THIS LOW FROM
MOVING MUCH...SO THERE IS A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. FRONT
RUNS EAST-WEST JUST NORTH OF THE LOW...EASTERLY WINDS ARE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS THIS FRONT MOVES CLOSER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LOW
NORTH OF KODIAK. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED MODEL WINDS ARE TOO LIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CURRENT FORECASTS
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLESM WITH EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG 150W OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE.
COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA VERY QUICKLY CHANGING
RAIN TO SNOW AND CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL. A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW SO SNOW SHOULD
HANG IN THERE. SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SNOW INTO
AREAS THAT HAVE REMAINED DRY THIS FAR. COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND LIFT ALOFT WILL SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN UPSLOPE AREAS. THE OTHER FACTOR IN TONIGHTS WEATHER WILL BE THE
WINDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY STORM FORCE GUSTS
(PERHAPS CLOSE TO HURRICANE FORCE) THROUGH THE KODIAK ISLAND/COOK
INLET WATERS. MOST PLACES WILL SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE WIND.
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR THE KACHEMAK BAY TO CARIBOU HILLS REGION AS WELL AS FOR THOMPSON
PASS. WILL LIKELY EXTEND SUSITNA VALLEY SNOW ADVISORY FROM WEST OF
THE PARKS HIGHWAY TO THE WHOLE ZONE AS UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH OF
TALKEETNA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT WONT END
COMPLETELY IN NORTHERN TO EASTERN AREAS UNTIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY WITH SNOW AND WIND LIKELY MOVING INTO KODIAK
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY. WITH GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF NEXT SYSTEM IT IS TOO SOON TO
ELABORATE ON ANY OF THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COLD ADVECTION AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT
WHILE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH. GUSTY
WINDS WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS. NEXT
ROUND OF WIND AND SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF SYSTEMS TO DETERMINE THAT YET.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...PACIFIC LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF ALEUTIANS BUT FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN MORE SNOW AND
WINDS. THIS IS A LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SO AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK ANY WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.
AS SYSTEMS DEVELOP EAST OF THE PARENT LOW COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE
DOWN ACROSS BERING SEA ONCE AGAIN...BUT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF A
PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN EXPECT ACTIVE STORM TRACK
TO PERSIST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 121 131.
MARINE...GALES...120 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171
                 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 132 138 140 141 150 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 08