Gale Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 241957 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

UPDATED AREA 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY
THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
BARREN ISLANDS WILL BECOME A 984 MB LOW 45 NM WEST OF SITKA BY SAT
MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
700 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
700 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
700 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
700 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
700 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
1100 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 242345
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR SEWARD THU NIGHT WILL MOVE NEAR YAKUTAT
AT 981 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SAT.
$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.  
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS PREFERRED
FOR ITS CONSISTENCY AND LOW NOISE LEVEL. NAM HAVING DIFFICULTY
LOCKING ONTO THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN BERING
THIS MORNING.

.WESTERN DOMAIN...
LARGE 967 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE LOW RAPIDLY
WEAKENS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND HEADS EASTWARD TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ONLY 1000 MB. IT
THEN MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES BY FRI EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY OCCLUDING. AS OF 4AM IT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GFS PROGS THE FRONT TO PASS
OVER THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEN
MARKEDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. COMBO OF SNOW AND
WIND IS ALREADY CREATING BLIZ CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISH
TOWARD NOON. PRECIPITATION  FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE BERING ZONES
SLATHERED IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SMALL TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN BERING
THIS MORNING. MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA TONIGHT. EXACT TRACK OF THIS FEATURE COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT FORECAST FOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE. DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE BEARS WATCHING.

.EASTERN DOMAIN...
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF
COASTS SHOULD BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST GAP FLOW WILL
DIMINISH AROUND NOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR NORTH WINDS ALSO
DROPS OFF TODAY.
SNOWFALL WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM WEST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREADING ACROSS THE WHOLE OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY MIDNIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE APPROACHING BERING SEA FRONT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT IS A SOLID PRESCRIPTION FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.
A 997 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

.BEYOND 36 HOURS...
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN CLEAR AND COLD AND BREEZY.
ANOTHER BIG STORM POISED TO BE ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF SHEMYA FRI
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO CURRENT BERING
LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ 155.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         STORM 130
         HEAVY SPRAY 129 130 138 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
108 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 100 N SHEMYA            54.17N 174.12E
01/23/2008  M85 MPH          XXX                XX   BUOY

            BUOY 70 REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH AT 942 AM AST WED
            JAN 23 2008.

0146 PM     BLIZZARD         ST. PAUL                57.21N 170.22W
01/23/2008                                      AK   ASOS

            SAINT PAUL ISLAND OBSERVED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH
            VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AND FREQUENT
            GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH BETWEEN 146 PM AST AND 853 PM AST WED
            JAN 23 2008.

&&

DANG