Gale Warning 101, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 251449 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

CORRECTED TYPOS

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE ONSHORE 60 NM NORTHWEST
OF SITKA AND STRENGTHEN TO 981 MB FRI EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-260300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW 45 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-260300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-260300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-260300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NW 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-260300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W WIND 30 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST THU JAN 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOT MUCH TO
DISCUSS. BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN USED TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE EASTERN DOMAIN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AXIS IS MOVING EAST AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PUMPS MOISTURE
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS JET STREAM IS RUNNING DUE NORTH UP THE
170W MERIDIAN STARTING FROM SOUTH OF THE 30N PARALLEL. THE MAIN LOW
AT THE SURFACE IS IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA AND HAS BEEN DETACHED
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A STRONG 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS SETTING
UP FROM SOUTHERN COOK INLET P THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND WILL HELP CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING SNOW TONIGHT. THE SNOW IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO END FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN ITEM THAT HAS BEEN CLOSELY LOOKED AT TODAY IS THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN TURNAGAIN ARM THIS EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND THERE IS GOING TO BE SNOW. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE VISIBILITIES
TO DROP ALL THE WAY TO ONE QUARTER MILE. WHAT IS VERY LIKELY IS THAT
IT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE VISIBILITIES GOING QUITE THAT LOW...A BLIZZARD
WARNING IS WARRANTED.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADD SUPPORT TO THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE
CLEARING OUT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES. THE BERING SEA AREA WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MODERATE WITH A LOW
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA BRINGING IN CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 101 111.
MARINE...GALE 120 121 129 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179
180 185.
         STORM 130.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 140 141 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08