Brisk Wind Advisory 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 011246
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF KISKA WILL MOVE TO 275 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA AT 975 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL FORM NEAR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN MOVE EAST FRI THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING 
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. BERING SIDE...SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BERING SIDE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 
FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST THU JAN 31 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE
CONSISTENT. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE LOWS AT OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE JET. THIS IS GOOD SINCE IT IS THE
SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN USED THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE FORECASTS AS THE
MODELS WERE CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN TO RUN. IN PARTICULAR THE
GFS HAS STABILIZED AND IS THE BASIC GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGES TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONGEST PART OF THE 250 MB JET
CONTINUES TO BE OFF EASTERN ASIA OUT TO AROUND 170E. IT THEN WEAKENS
SOME AS IT SKIRTS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE BIGGEST LOW IN THE AREA IS NEAR KISKA AND SITUATED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THAT WILL PUSH THE JET FARTHER NORTH AND INCREASE ITS SPEED
TO OVER 150 KT THIS WEEKEND.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IN THE WEST IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS OUT OF THE YUKON THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK LOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS ENHANCING WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. THIS LOW WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN
MAINLAND ALASKA AGAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTS OR IN VALLEYS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS ALONG THE FRONT.
THOMPSON PASS HAS HAS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
STRONG WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO DROPPING WIND CHILLS TO 40
BELOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
AND WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE JET STREAM AND LOW PRESSURE TRACK
MOVING NORTHWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR
OF THE STATE. THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IS SO LITTLE THAT AT 120
HOURS OUT IT LOOKS A LOT LIKE IT DOES FOR THE MODEL INITIALIZATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08