Brisk Wind Advisory 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU MAR 27 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OVER
THE BERING SEA. ALL THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER
THE BERING SEA FRIDAY, BUT NOW THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT IT
INTENSITY AND LOCATIONS. THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM 996 MB OPEN WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEAS TO A 992 MB CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
WITH A 994 MB OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND IS THE BEST
COMPROMISE UNTIL THE MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS PRODUCING AREAS OF SNOW OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE GULF. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF AND A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. MOST OF THE
WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SNOW FALLING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN AT IT PASSES THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
KENAI PENINSULA FRIDAY AND THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
THE EASTERN MAINLAND SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE, THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ALEUTIAN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BERING AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND BRISTOL
BAY SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS AND SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT, THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOFS FRIDAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PRIBILOFS FRIDAY.

A MODERATE LOW OVER THE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A 985 MB CENTER THE TURN NORTH AND WEAKEN TO 995 MB NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND SUNDAY. AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF SNOW MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA MONDAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SUNDAY
WILL MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO NEAR COLD BAY BY TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170, 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 08