Tornado Warning 15, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
754 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.UPDATE...
ISSUED TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRAS ARE DEVELOPING OUT WEST OF THE
RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

18Z SOUNDING DEPICTS FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...DESPITE WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES. SUSPECT CAPE OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNDERDONE. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...BUT ALSO SEEING ANOTHER
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHWAY 14.
ALOFT...WILL SEE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE IN MT MOVE EAST WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SD. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PROVIDE
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE HEADS ACROSS THE CWA.
HODOGRAPHS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A DEEP
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE LACKING STRONG H7 WINDS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LINE EVOLUTION AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONG TERM IS A LITTLE LONGER THAN NORMAL AS SHORT TERM NEEDS
TO FOCUS ON UPCOMING EVENING. THIS LONG RANGE WILL SEE A CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A LARGE H5 UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE H5 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS. FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
LIE ALONG THE ROCKIES WITH THIS AREA IN A MOSTLY NORTH FLOW. LATER
IN THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SEVERAL SMALL FEATURES ARE
NOTED IN THE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TO THE AREA AND REMAIN UNTIL NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL HELP SET UP A LEE SIDE TROUGH THAT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE IN VICINITY THUNDER IN FOR ALL TAF SITES AND WILL
AMEND IF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED AT A STATION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-271730-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008 /1116 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING REACHING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
811 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             TIMBER LAKE             45.43N 101.07W
06/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       DEWEY              SD   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

ATG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
812 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             8 N ISABEL              45.51N 101.43W
06/26/2008  E2.75 INCH       CORSON             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ATG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
813 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     HAIL             TIMBER LAKE             45.43N 101.07W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       DEWEY              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ATG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
821 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             6 NE ISABEL             45.46N 101.34W
06/26/2008  E1.75 INCH       DEWEY              SD   PUBLIC

&&

ATG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
827 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TORNADO          8 N PARADE              45.14N 101.10W
06/26/2008                   DEWEY              SD   STORM CHASER

            INITIAL TOUCH DOWN FOR THREE TO FOUR MINUTES.

&&

MFOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
848 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             TIMBER LAKE             45.43N 101.07W
06/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       DEWEY              SD   PUBLIC

&&

ATG