Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

18Z SOUNDING DEPICTS FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...DESPITE WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES. SUSPECT CAPE OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNDERDONE. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...BUT ALSO SEEING ANOTHER
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHWAY 14.
ALOFT...WILL SEE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE IN MT MOVE EAST WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SD. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PROVIDE
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE HEADS ACROSS THE CWA.
HODOGRAPHS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A DEEP
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE LACKING STRONG H7 WINDS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LINE EVOLUTION AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONG TERM IS A LITTLE LONGER THAN NORMAL AS SHORT TERM NEEDS
TO FOCUS ON UPCOMING EVENING. THIS LONG RANGE WILL SEE A CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A LARGE H5 UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE H5 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS. FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
LIE ALONG THE ROCKIES WITH THIS AREA IN A MOSTLY NORTH FLOW. LATER
IN THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SEVERAL SMALL FEATURES ARE
NOTED IN THE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TO THE AREA AND REMAIN UNTIL NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL HELP SET UP A LEE SIDE TROUGH THAT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS AT THE FOUR TAF LOCATIONS ARE ALL VFR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION IS NOTE IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IT
IS WEAK AND FAIRLY HIGH BASED. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AND
EXPAND THIS EVENING AND TO BECOME QUITE SIGNIFICANT. EXPECT SOME
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL END BY MORNING
AND EXPECT GOOD VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-271730-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008 /1116 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING REACHING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FOWLE