Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MENTION
OF THE FLOOD WATCH. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE ENE TODAY. SPC HAS MARSHALL...DAY...CLARK AND
POINTS EAST UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH EAST INTO MINNESOTA WITH
SOME REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR REST OF THE DAY.

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST...WILL ADDRESS FLOOD RISK AS RADAR ESTIMATED
2-4 FOR PARTS OF CORSON AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES ECLIPSING 1.5
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...HOWEVER NO REPORTS OF FLOODING FROM THAT
AREA. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA WELL INTO THE AM HOURS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

ASIDE FROM NORTHERN TIER STORMS...CONVECTION FILLING IN FROM
NORTHERN NE INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST
GUIDANCE...INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE/LI VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING...AND HODOGRAPHS TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SEVERE THREAT EAST
INTO THE PM HOURS.

WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF POPS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COULD SEE
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH BOTH AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES NORTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
TRW GOING DURING THAT TIME. A DECENT SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND WITH THE FRONT STILL IN
THE GENERAL AREA...WILL KEEP A SMALL POP FOR TRW GOING. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY
WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO BE
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KATY TERMINAL. THE
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH OFF INTO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

SDZ003>007-009>011-015>017-120900-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-
DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
346 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008 /246 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. THE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-018>023-033>037-045-048-051-120900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-ROBERTS-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-
DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
346 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008 /246 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PARKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1021 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             15 ESE MOUND CITY       45.64N 99.78W
06/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       CAMPBELL           SD   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER HAIL. ALSO ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

0115 AM     TSTM WND GST     15 ESE MOUND CITY       45.64N 99.78W
06/11/2008  E60.00 MPH       CAMPBELL           SD   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WINDS AT LEAST 60 MPH. COTTONWOOD TREE SNAPPED
            OFF AT GROUND.

&&

JJZ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>