Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
243 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST...WILL ADDRESS FLOOD RISK AS RADAR ESTIMATED
2-4 FOR PARTS OF CORSON AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES ECLIPSING 1.5
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...HOWEVER NO REPORTS OF FLOODING FROM THAT
AREA. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA WELL INTO THE AM HOURS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

ASIDE FROM NORTHERN TIER STORMS...CONVECTION FILLING IN FROM
NORTHERN NE INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST
GUIDANCE...INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE/LI VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING...AND HODOGRAPHS TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SEVERE THREAT EAST
INTO THE PM HOURS.

WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF POPS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COULD SEE
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH BOTH AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES NORTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
TRW GOING DURING THAT TIME. A DECENT SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND WITH THE FRONT STILL IN
THE GENERAL AREA...WILL KEEP A SMALL POP FOR TRW GOING. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500-8000 FEET WITH VFR VSBYS
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-POTTER-WALWORTH.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BROWN-DAY-MARSHALL.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

SDZ003>007-009>011-015>017-112015-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-
DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008 /206 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF THE STATE.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE STRONG TO SEVERE LIMIT
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RECENT
HEAVY RAIN...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT MEANS THIS AREA
WILL BE PRONE FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE I29 CORRIDOR AND EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-018>023-033>037-045-048-051-112015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-ROBERTS-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-
DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008 /206 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE FROM THE I29 CORRIDOR AND EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

SD

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