Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WWUS53 KABR 242123
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
423 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

SDC017-059-065-069-085-117-242200-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080524T2200Z/
BUFFALO SD-HYDE SD-HAND SD-HUGHES SD-LYMAN SD-STANLEY SD-
423 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STANLEY...NORTH CENTRAL LYMAN...EASTERN
HUGHES...WEST CENTRAL HAND...SOUTHERN HYDE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 420 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF WEST BEND REC AREA...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LOWER BRULE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 44 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARROLD AROUND 440 PM CDT...
  HOLABIRD AROUND 445 PM CDT...
  HIGHMORE AROUND 450 PM CDT...
  REE HEIGHTS AROUND 500 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4454 9974 4452 9919 4406 9966 4419 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 214DEG 38KT 4430 9969

$$
FOWLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
243 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS BEGAN
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW/JET MAX EXIT REGION. STORM MOTION VERIFIES FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AHEAD OF THESE CELLS...LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...HOWEVER
BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME HEATING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...ALTHOUGH MID TO
UPPER 50S UPSTREAM COULD INTERACT WITH CONVECTION IN THE CWA. RUC
INDICATING THE HIGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY REGION WILL SPREAD OUT OF SW
SD/NORTHERN NE...NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HODOGRAPHS FOR THE CWA CONTINUE TO DICTATE A SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH DISCREET CELL MOTION NORTHWARDS...SO
TRAINING/BACK BUILDING THREAT EXISTS AS WELL.

WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS FRONT SHIFTS THEM TO WESTERLY. WESTERLY WINDS
TOMORROW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES OF +16C...COULD
SEE HIGHS REACH ABOUT 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH CURRENT H5 UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND
WEAKENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST REFORMS. THIS
WILL LEAVE THIS AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND UNDER UPPER LEVEL H5
RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL
THURSDAY. GFS SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOSTLY RUN SOUTH OF
THIS AREA UNTIL THURSDAY WITH ONLY VERY FLEETING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OR RAIN. ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS
A STRONG H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA. THIS SYSTEM
COUPLED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH FORM A TROUGH
RUNNING SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA AND BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOKED
GOOD SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS DECK REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...HOWEVER
BREAKS IN/RISING CEILINGS OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...ONLY
TO BE REPLACED WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR KPIR/KABR/KATY. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE EAST
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S...THESE
WILL CHANGE OVER TO WESTERLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-252000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-252000-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008 /150 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 10 PM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
TORNADOES AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONNELLY