Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENG FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE DETERMINING HOW STRONG
THE EAST WIND WILL GET IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT. A POTENT BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT...ENHANCED BY STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM WESTERLY MOVING CONVECTION
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE TOP OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH STRONG EAST WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 4
AND 6 PM AND LINGERING AS LATE AS 11 PM MDT. GFS AND NAM DEPICT 10K
FT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP THE
EAST WINDS TO TOP THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CAUSE STRONG WINDS
FOR MOST PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. SINCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS HAS
BEEN TURNING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO
UPGRADE THIS WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...IF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS TOP THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DETERMINING WHERE A MESO LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL MOVE.
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A RIDGE WITH WEAK AIRFLOW ALOFT...AND THE
GFS...NAM...ECMWF AND UKMET ALL DRIFT THE LOW SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THE MESO LOW SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE IN NORTH OR NORTHWEST MEXICO...IF IT DOES NOT FILL.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT AND THE
DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE MESOLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST TODAY BEFORE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND WITH THE MESO
LOW. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND AN
INCH...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THOSE THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHTER. A STEADY EAST WIND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALL DAY SUNDAY...SO DONT BE
SUPRISED IF CONVECTION IN THE VALLEY REMAINS ISOLATED THAT DAY DUE
TO DOWN SLOPING FLOW. BY MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RECYCLING
WITH LESS AND LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK.

44

&&

.AVIATION...

AT TIME OF THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTH FROM JUST E OF SANTA FE TO JUST E OF CLINES CORNERS THEN E TO
JUST N OF KCVN. PREFRONTAL WINDSHIFT IS A SHORT DISTANCE TO W OF
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF SANDIAS AND N MANZANOS.
STRONG CONVECTION AFFECTING KLVS TO SANTA ROSA TO CLOVIS AND
PORTALES AREAS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AND FARTHER TO W AND S
THEREAFTER. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG
WITH STRONG OUTFLOWS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG AND EITHER
SIDE OF FRONT. ALSO VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4 MILES OR LESS
LOCALLY IN TSTMS. LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME FOG LIKELY TO PRODUCE IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR AND AFTER 05Z ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE E
PLAINS WESTWARD TO CREST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN WHERE CREST AND E
SLOPES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME OBSCURED. A STRONG EAST WIND IS
EXPECTED AT KABQ AFTER 23Z OR 00Z WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED WET AND DRY STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MORE LIKELY VICINITY OF THE LATTER.
BETTER COVERAGE OF WET STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE E PLAINS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...MOISTENING WESTERN AREAS FOR
SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 OR EVEN 45 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM MDT
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
WILL BE OF WETTER NATURE SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL ALSO HIGHER BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST MONDAY THANKS TO THE MOISTURE SURGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY OR MID WEEK AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS
PARKED TO THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  60  93  61  94 /  10  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  52  88  53  88 /  10  20  30  20
GRANTS..........................  56  83  54  83 /  10  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  58  90  60  87 /  10  20  30  20
CHAMA...........................  42  76  44  76 /  30  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  77  50  80 /  30  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  40  67  40  71 /  60  50  30  40
TAOS............................  50  77  49  83 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE........................  58  76  51  82 /  30  50  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  78  53  84 /  30  30  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  57  82  53  89 /  30  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  83  63  86 /  30  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  85  59  89 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  81  56  88 /  30  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  85  61  91 /  20  20  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  84  64  86 /  20  40  50  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  77  48  80 /  40  40  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  78  53  82 /  50  50  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  80  67  79 /  40  50  60  30
RUIDOSO.........................  56  69  63  71 /  50  60  60  30
RATON...........................  53  78  51  85 /  50  40  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  74  50  82 /  50  40  30  30
ROY.............................  58  77  57  81 /  50  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  58  78  58  88 /  50  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  58  81  59  86 /  50  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  82  62  90 /  50  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  80  63  88 /  50  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  62  81  61  88 /  50  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  63  81  63  87 /  50  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  79  65  88 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ003-009-015-016.

&&

44/43

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
127 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

NMZ019-282000-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
127 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 117 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 17 MILES NORTH OF LOCO HILLS.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL EAST CENTRAL CHAVES
COUNTY.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

40

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
229 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             OJO FELIZ               36.06N 105.12W
06/28/2008  E0.75 INCH       MORA               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSUK

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