Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...PATTERN SHIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ALTHOUGH A
BIT SLOWER.  WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO
DIVERGE WHERE/WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS PRODUCING A
SWATH OF SPOTTY AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM LINCOLN AND
TORRANCE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH LEA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SHIFT TO DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
REMAINS FORECASTED TO OCCUR TODAY AND PERSIST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS IS STILL INDICATED TO REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WESTWARD SUNDAY WHILE THE H5 HIGH CENTER
RETREATS INTO ARIZONA.

SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY STILL INCLUDES MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST OVER ARIZONA AND SOCAL. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MECHANISM TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SURGE IN THIS
WEEKEND...SO LOOK FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY OFF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE GFS INDICATES THIS PATTERN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND MORE OVER NEW MEXICO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THRU THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM THIS MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT WILL CHARGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT...WITH ADDED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS SE NM DUE TO UPPER LOW.  WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 4 MILES OR LESS LOCALLY IN TSTMS. A
STRONG EAST WIND IS EXPECTED AT KABQ TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS CONTINUE
TODAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH WET STORMS THE RULE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...AND WILL SEEP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN GAPS TONIGHT...MOISTENING WESTERN AREAS
FOR SUNDAY. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND WILL BE OF WETTER NATURE SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO HIGHER BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT THRU AT LEAST MONDAY THANKS TO THE MOISTURE SURGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEK AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS
PARKED TO THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  95  61  92  61 /   5  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  88  52  88  52 /  10  10  20  30
GRANTS..........................  89  56  85  54 /  10  10  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  94  57  94  59 /  10  10  30  30
CHAMA...........................  84  43  78  45 /  20  30  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  83  54  81  52 /  30  40  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  73  41  69  41 /  40  60  50  40
TAOS............................  85  50  79  50 /  40  50  40  40
SANTA FE........................  87  58  81  55 /  30  40  50  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  57  83  57 /  30  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  91  57  86  55 /  20  40  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  65  86  66 /  20  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  64  88  62 /  20  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  62  85  59 /  20  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  64  88  63 /  20  30  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  93  64  90  62 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  54  80  50 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  55  82  55 /  40  60  50  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  61  87  58 /  30  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  82  57  75  50 /  30  30  50  40
RATON...........................  85  53  79  51 /  50  60  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  83  52  76  50 /  50  60  50  40
ROY.............................  84  58  79  57 /  30  50  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  85  59  80  58 /  30  50  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  89  59  84  59 /  30  40  40  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  64  84  62 /  30  50  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  65  83  63 /  30  40  40  30
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  83  62 /  30  50  30  20
PORTALES........................  91  64  83  63 /  30  50  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  93  67  84  65 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

NMZ001>021-026-291200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
MICROBURST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
102 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

NMZ004-005-281930-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
102 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ALONG THE TAOS AND COLFAX COUNTY
LINE...

AT 1254 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR HOLMAN. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANON...CHACON...
CLEVELAND...LEDOUX AND MONTE APLANADO.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
107 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

NMZ012-281930-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-
107 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY...

AT 1258 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 6 MILES EAST OF PUERTO DE LUNA.
MOVEMENT WAS WEST AT 9 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL CENTRAL GUADALUPE
COUNTY.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

40