Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 110151
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
650 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

AZC003-110215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070711T0215Z/
COCHISE AZ-
650 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MST
FOR NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 645 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR BOWIE...OR ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF WILLCOX...MOVING 
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-10 AT
MILEPOST 355.

LAT...LON 3219 10980 3216 10937 3244 10951 3244 10986

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 110210
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
709 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

AZC003-110219-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070711T0215Z/
COCHISE AZ-
709 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 715 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOWIE CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. 
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 715 PM MST. 

LAT...LON 3219 10980 3216 10937 3244 10951 3244 10986

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES BACK IN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATE
THAT THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A MESOSCALE VORTEX WHICH CAN BE
SEEN IN IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT AND GENERATED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY BETWEEN SELLS AND TUBAC...OR PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER... CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION
SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS OVER CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY NEAR THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. AT THIS POINT THE ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED IN
NATURE...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH THE STORMS
BECOMING SCATTERED. STEERING FLOW SHOULD TAKE THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OR WEST NORTHWEST.

MY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NAM SINCE IT HAS PERFORMED BETTER
THAN THE GFS DURING THE RECENT PAST. WITH THAT SAID...THE NAM IS
INDICATING THAT ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC LOW INTO AND
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND TOWARD THE LAS VEGAS AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWING PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN OVER 2 INCHES
IN SOME PLACES...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION FLARE ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST HAS SCATTERED STORMS FOR MY EASTERN
ZONES AND ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NAM SHOWS A WEAKER HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE HIGH. NAM
DEPICTS A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO ARIZONA ON 20-30 KNOT MID
LEVEL WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED OVER COCHISE COUNTY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE THE NAM SHOWS A DEFORMATION
ZONE NEAR THIS AREA AS WELL. THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN WETTER SINCE THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE CLOSER AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE RIGHT OVER
THE MIDDLE OF MY CWA. CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS NOTION WITH
INCREASING POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY IF THE NAM
SOLUTION HANGS ON TO THE NOTION OF THE LOW BEING THAT CLOSE TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW/INVERTED TROUGH...BUT
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM. TIME WILL TELL. BEYOND FRIDAY I
LEFT POP GRIDS AS I INHERITED THEM...WHICH IS GENERALLY CLIMO FOR
MID JULY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK THROUGH
SEVEN DAYS FOR THE TUCSON AREA. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 70S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS ALLOWING SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT TO PULL DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL
REMAIN GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...MONDAY MARKED THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF THE DAILY
AVERAGE DEWPOINT BEING 54 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...JULY 10TH...IS FOR A DAILY AVERAGE OF 57 DEGREES. IF THAT
HOLDS...THE 2007 MONSOON WILL HAVE OFFICIALLY STARTED ON JULY 8TH.
THE AVERAGE START DATE IS JULY 3RD.

YESTERDAY MARKED THE 27TH CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT TUCSON HAS RECORDED A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES OR GREATER. THIS CURRENTLY RANKS AS
THE 9TH LONGEST STREAK ON RECORD (TIED WITH 1989 AND 1903). THE
RECORD IS 39 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHICH OCCURRED IN 2005 AND 1987.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...EVANS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON