Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 110506
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1005 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

AZC019-021-110515-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-070711T0515Z/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
1005 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL AND
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1015 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN 
INTENSITY RAPIDLY. THUS...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 
1015 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3247 11099 3246 11081 3264 11078 3265 11108

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST TUE JUL 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES BACK IN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN COCHISE COUNTY
NORTH TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT 900 PM MST...RADAR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING. THIS OUTFLOW WAS HELPING TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EXTREME EASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POP VALUES GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN
PIMA. WILL LIKELY DROP POP VALUES FOR SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE SANTA CRUZ
AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES AS A DRY POCKET WAS ADVECTING IN FROM
SONORA. PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. ALSO...SEE THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER AWIPS
HEADER PHXPNSTWC OR WMO NOUS45 FOR MONSOON START DATE IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS ALLOWING SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT TO PULL DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL
REMAIN GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION..BY WEDNESDAY THE NAM SHOWS A WEAKER HIGH OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SOUTH OF THE HIGH. NAM DEPICTS A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THIS
SETUP WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO ARIZONA
ON 20-30 KNOT MID LEVEL WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED OVER
COCHISE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE THE NAM
SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR THIS AREA AS WELL. THURSDAY MAY BE
EVEN WETTER SINCE THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE CLOSER AND THE
DEFORMATION ZONE RIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OF MY CWA. CURRENT POP
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS NOTION WITH INCREASING POPS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
POPS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY IF THE NAM SOLUTION HANGS ON TO THE
NOTION OF THE LOW BEING THAT CLOSE TO  SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW/INVERTED TROUGH...BUT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NAM. TIME WILL TELL. BEYOND FRIDAY I LEFT POP GRIDS AS I
INHERITED THEM...WHICH IS GENERALLY CLIMO FOR MID JULY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK THROUGH
SEVEN DAYS FOR THE TUCSON AREA. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 70S.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON