Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 142323
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
418 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

AZC019-142345-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-070814T2345Z/
PIMA AZ-
418 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST
FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 411 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED OVER PARTS OF ORO VALLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH 
THE CENTER OF THE STORM TRACKING ACROSS STATE HIGHWAY 77. 

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ALSO INDICATED WITH THIS STORM. AN URBAN AND 
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST FOR 
FLOODING OF WASHES AND STREETS IN THE AREA. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CATALINA

LAT...LON 3225 11085 3252 11087 3252 11104 3236 11108

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS ALREADY ON THE
WAY...WHICH WAS A BIT EARLIER OF A START COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THE STRONGER WIND PROFILE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS
TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA. BEYOND TODAY...A SERIES OF EASTERLY
IMPULSES MAY IMPACT THE AREA HELPING ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT ONE WAS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHWEST
APPROACHING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS
CONTINUED TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THESE FEATURES SO WILL NEED TO
TAKE IT DAY-BY-DAY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENING A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. POP VALUES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN A NOTCH FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT TERMINAL SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1214 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

AZZ029-031>035-151915-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1214 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND A STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ONE HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY WESTWARD TO SANTA CRUZ AND PIMA
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.