Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 142123
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
221 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

AZC023-142145-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-070814T2145Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
221 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 221 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NOGALES...MOVING 
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ALSO ACCOMPANYING 
THIS STORM WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PENA
BLANCA LAKE AND TUMACACORI

LAT...LON 3134 11089 3134 11080 3142 11070 3159 11111
      3140 11127 3134 11107

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 142151
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
244 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

AZC023-142154-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-070814T2145Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
244 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 245 PM MST...

AT 240 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG 
THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHWEST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. THIS STORM HAD MOVED 
WEST OF DOWNTOWN NOGALES AND INTERSTATE 19 AND HAD STRENGTHENED 
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM 
WAS IN SONORA MEXICO...AND THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE 245 PM 
MST.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA FOR THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERSONS TRAVELING...HIKING...OR CAMPING ALONG 
ROAD 289 FROM ARIVACA TO PENA BLANCA LAKE MAY ENCOUNTER HIGH FLOWS 
IN WASHES AND FLOODED SPOTS ALONG THE ROAD. 

LAT...LON 3134 11089 3134 11080 3142 11070 3159 11111
      3140 11127 3134 11107

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS ALREADY ON THE
WAY...WHICH WAS A BIT EARLIER OF A START COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THE STRONGER WIND PROFILE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS
TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA. BEYOND TODAY...A SERIES OF EASTERLY
IMPULSES MAY IMPACT THE AREA HELPING ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT ONE WAS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHWEST
APPROACHING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS
CONTINUED TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THESE FEATURES SO WILL NEED TO
TAKE IT DAY-BY-DAY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENING A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. POP VALUES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN A NOTCH FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT TERMINAL SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1214 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

AZZ029-031>035-151915-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1214 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND A STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ONE HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY WESTWARD TO SANTA CRUZ AND PIMA
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.