Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CIN.  THERE IS SOME CAPE BUT
MORE CIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  ALL IN ALL ISOLATED STORMS
MAY BE ONGOING ALMOST ANYWHERE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE AROUND SUNSET.

DIFFERENCES IN THE WRF AND GFS STILL EXIST FOR SUNDAY AND LAST
INTO MONDAY.  THE WRF SUGGESTS HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH POP AND HAS SIZZLING TEMPERATURES.
FIGURE IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  CONVECTION TODAY SUGGESTS
SOUPY AIR MASS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS.  THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAV HIGHS.

AS THE WEEK PROGESSES THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.  THE 12Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM SUGGEST THIS. THE
12Z GFS ALSO HINTS AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH GETTING
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND RESIDING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THUS...WARM AND MUGGY CONDTIONS WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE WHAT I EXPECT THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCE
POPS ARE MERITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  75  91 /  20  30  10  30
FSM   70  88  71  91 /  20  30  10  30
MLC   71  89  72  91 /  20  30  10  30
BVO   68  88  70  92 /  20  30  10  30
FYV   66  84  67  86 /  20  30  10  30
BYV   67  83  68  84 /  20  30  10  30
MKO   71  87  71  89 /  20  30  10  30
MIO   69  87  71  90 /  20  30  10  30
F10   71  86  71  90 /  20  30  10  30
HHW   71  91  72  93 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....17

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
155 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
70S HAVE RESULTED IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING WEAKLY CAPPED...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT.

DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS...MAINLY FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
NOT EXPECTED NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
224 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

OKZ076-092000-
LE FLORE OK-
224 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL LE FLORE

AT 224 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTH OF HODGEN...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HODGEN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3479 9476 3464 9464 3468 9446 3495 9447

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

OKZ053-092045-
CHOCTAW OK-
304 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW

AT 304 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTH OF UNGER...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BOSWELL...UNGER AND SOPER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3375 9603 3374 9565 3405 9562 3405 9591