Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
352 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WELL DISPERSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL
TRACKING NORTH.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS / RISK
OF GUST TO 40 AS CORES COLLAPSE. ANTICIPATE
A DOWNTREND THIS EVENING..WHEN DAYTIME HEAT
REMOVED FROM ATMOSPHERIC EQUATION. MINI MCV
(ANOTHER)...ROTATING SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AT
MID AFTERNOON..MAY SPIN ANOTHER BAND PRECIP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE
EVENING.

1000-900  THICKNESS 850 TEMPERATURES CHANGE
LITTLE NEXT 36 HOURS.  MAV TEMPS WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LAST COUPLE DAYS BIAS USED.

H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST DROPS INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK..AND GREAT LAKES
LATE WEEK.   EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL STAY MOIST...WITHOUT MUCH DRY
AIR TO TAP.                              GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  80  66  80 /  50  50  20  60
FSM   64  79  65  82 /  30  60  30  50
MLC   66  78  67  80 /  60  60  20  50
BVO   64  80  65  79 /  40  50  30  60
FYV   59  76  62  77 /  30  50  30  50
BYV   63  75  62  75 /  30  50  40  50
MKO   64  78  65  79 /  40  50  20  50
MIO   64  79  64  78 /  30  40  30  70
F10   64  77  66  80 /  50  50  20  60
HHW   66  78  67  81 /  60  60  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
INTO THE REGION...AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY MAY
STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ACCORDINGLY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ056-061-282145-
NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-
347 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN ROGERS AND EASTERN NOWATA

AT 347 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUSHYHEAD TO 3 MILES SOUTH
OF FOYIL...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NEW ALLUWE...FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD AND
CHELSEA. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT LAKE OOLAGAH. BOATERS ON THE
LAKE SHOULD MOVE TO SHORE FOR SAFETY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3638 9541 3636 9566 3691 9558 3693 9545

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ068-282245-
CHEROKEE OK-
518 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE

AT 518 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ELDON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ELDON AND SCRAPER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3584 9495 3586 9482 3615 9486 3614 9504

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ049-282300-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
528 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 528 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KELLOND...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ANTLERS...MOYERS...KOSOMA...
KELLOND...EUBANKS AND DUNBAR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3416 9580 3416 9558 3458 9552 3459 9574

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ053-282300-
CHOCTAW OK-
532 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHOCTAW

AT 532 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KENT...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KENT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3404 9581 3403 9561 3416 9563 3417 9583

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ067-070-282300-
MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
537 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER

AT 537 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF OKAY...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKAY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3575 9538 3575 9527 3591 9527 3591 9543

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ073>075-282315-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
547 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHERN
     LATIMER

AT 547 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF LEWISVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEWISVILLE AND QUINTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3491 9538 3494 9526 3520 9527 3515 9550