Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. NOT MUCH
LIFT WILL BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE AIRMASS IS RATHER
MOIST AND UNCAPPED. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAIN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA.

HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AREA-WIDE.
HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS WE COULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  64  78  64 /  50  40  70  40
FSM   82  65  77  65 /  50  30  70  30
MLC   80  64  76  64 /  50  40  70  30
BVO   80  63  76  63 /  50  40  70  50
FYV   80  62  75  62 /  50  30  70  30
BYV   81  62  75  62 /  50  30  70  30
MKO   81  63  75  63 /  50  40  70  30
MIO   82  63  77  63 /  50  40  70  40
F10   79  63  75  63 /  50  40  70  40
HHW   80  64  76  64 /  50  40  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
INTO THE REGION...AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY MAY
STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ACCORDINGLY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
207 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ060-064-281930-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
207 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA

AT 207 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF KIEFER TO JENKS TO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LEONARD...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GRAY...TULSA...LEONARD...
BIXBY...JENKS...BROKEN ARROW AND KIEFER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3593 9613 3596 9598 3580 9577 3608 9577
      3626 9592 3618 9609

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
221 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

OKZ054-059>061-064-281945-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-
221 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN CREEK...TULSA
     AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE

AT 221 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF GRAY TO 5 MILES WEST OF BROKEN
ARROW...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GRAY...TULSA...SAND SPRINGS...LEONARD...
JENKS...OWASSO...SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE...BROKEN ARROW AND
WESTPORT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING WILL BE LIKELY. BOATERS ON AREA
LAKES SHOULD MOVE TO SHORE DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3617 9643 3590 9579 3638 9580 3641 9622