Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN EVENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM.

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THE WRF AND GFS SHOW SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE BLOW UPS IN
THEIR VORTICITY AND QPF FIELDS.  THUS...IT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET IT WILL RAIN. CURRENT THOUGHTS ON QPF WOULD PUT TOTALS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE INCH AND A HALF RANGE. SHOULD
IT BECOME OBVIOUS MORE RAIN WILL FALL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WOULD BE MERITED.  HAVE DECIDED TO PUT IT OFF BUT USERS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR OUR PRODUCTS TONIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN.  THE
MODELS SHOW FRONTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUEDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS OF SWEEPING THE
FRONTS THROUGH APPEARS PROBLEMATIC.  IF I TRUSTED THE WRF
I WOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTION OF
CONVECTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.  THE SAME SCENARIO OCCURS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO KEEP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY DRY BUT THIS MAY NEED REVISITED.

TEMP WISE...CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE A FACTOR.  AM A BIT COOLER
THAN MY NEIGHBORS TOMORROW...BUT I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RAIN AND CLOUDS TO HOLD THINGS DOWN A LITTLE.  ALL IN ALL DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MAV AND MEX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  86  70  87 /  70  80  50  20
FSM   71  86  72  89 /  30  80  50  20
MLC   73  86  72  88 /  60  80  50  20
BVO   71  86  65  86 /  70  80  50  20
FYV   69  82  67  86 /  40  80  50  20
BYV   68  80  68  83 /  30  70  50  20
MKO   71  84  71  87 /  60  80  50  20
MIO   71  84  68  85 /  70  80  50  20
F10   72  85  71  86 /  60  80  50  20
HHW   75  91  74  89 /  40  60  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....17

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
WITH THE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE RECENTLY FLOODED AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
MONITOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ARZ019-091745-
CRAWFORD AR-
1204 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

AT 1204 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CEDARVILLE TO CONCORD TO KIBLER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...CONCORD...PLEASANT HILL...MULBERRY...MOUNTAINBURG...
ALMA...CEDARVILLE...CHESTER...KIBLER...SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...
FIGURE FIVE AND RUDY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3559 9446 3545 9435 3536 9430 3548 9404
      3559 9407 3571 9415

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

OKZ060-064>066-092115-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-
320 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE...EASTERN CREEK AND SOUTHERN TULSA

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 320 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF KELLYVILLE TO 3 MILES WEST OF
BEGGS TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OKEMAH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...
LIBERTY...GRAY...OKEMAH...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH...OKFUSKEE...
OKMULGEE...HENRYETTA...BRYANT...DEWAR...GRAYSON...SCHULTER...
MORRIS...PRESTON...BEGGS...BALD HILL...HECTORVILLE...SAND SPRINGS...
LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...SLICK...MOUNDS...
KIEFER...KELLYVILLE...SAPULPA AND WILSON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3615 9631 3572 9633 3533 9638 3539 9591
      3570 9573 3615 9581