Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS64 KTSA 272048
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

OKZ049-053-071-073>075-280300-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-070528T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-MCINTOSH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...EUFAULA...
MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON
348 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...
  HASKELL...LATIMER...MCINTOSH...PITTSBURG AND PUSHMATAHA.

* UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
  THE SIX COUNTY WATCH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH
  A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT 
  PERIOD OF TIME. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
  OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS64 KTSA 280202
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

OKZ049-053-071-073>075-280315-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-070528T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-MCINTOSH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...EUFAULA...
MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON
902 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOWS PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE WATCH ARE AT THIS TIME.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO RESULT IN A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM.

A SLOW MOVING DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH A
NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
WEAK STEARING WINDS...CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR SOUTHEAST OKAHOMA AS 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AROUND 2 AND A HALF INCHES. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WAS FORECAST TO HAPPEN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED.

THAT SAID...DECENT POPS ARE WARRANTED.  WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
MOS TODAY AS THINK IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR EVERYWHERE TO HAVE
APPRECIABLE RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO KEPT A DIURNAL
TREND TO THE POPS AS THE WRF SHOWS THIS AND OTHER THAN
DAYTIME HEATING FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK.  AS TIME
PROGRESSES THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
POP CORN SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO WANE GIVEN TRENDS IN
THE MEAN RH.  THUS...HAVE POPS DECLINING A BIT WITH EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGHER POPS ARE WARRANTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA,  MAY ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.  STRONGER STORMS WOULD SEEM POSSIBLE.
A FEW RAIN LESS DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONT
BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.

TEMPWISE...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED BY RAIN AND CLOUDS.
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  64  78  65 /  70  50  60  40
FSM   79  65  79  64 /  70  40  70  40
MLC   76  64  78  65 /  70  40  60  40
BVO   77  63  78  64 /  70  40  60  40
FYV   77  62  76  61 /  70  40  70  40
BYV   76  62  76  61 /  70  40  70  50
MKO   75  63  77  63 /  70  50  60  40
MIO   76  62  78  63 /  70  40  70  40
F10   75  63  77  64 /  70  40  60  40
HHW   76  64  78  64 /  70  40  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....17

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
STAY TO OUR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK...BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.