Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Watches in 2007

Flash Flood Watch 14, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 9, 200722 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood watch at Jul 9, 2007, 11:19 PM CDT for 22 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 19 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 9, 2007, 11:19 PM CDT (04:19 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2007, 5:57 PM CDT
In force: 19 hr
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Flood severity: None

All 26 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3020 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1274 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 7.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 9, 9:16 PM CDT, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 9:16 PM CDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
916 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

WILL LOCALLY CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 WITH THIS
UPDATE AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOVE TO THE EAST. THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS NEAR A KEMP-KGAG LINE AS THE LOW
JET INCREASES AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP...QPF AND POP GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN EVENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM.

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THE WRF AND GFS SHOW SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE BLOW UPS IN
THEIR VORTICITY AND QPF FIELDS.  THUS...IT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET IT WILL RAIN. CURRENT THOUGHTS ON QPF WOULD PUT TOTALS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE INCH AND A HALF RANGE. SHOULD
IT BECOME OBVIOUS MORE RAIN WILL FALL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WOULD BE MERITED.  HAVE DECIDED TO PUT IT OFF BUT USERS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR OUR PRODUCTS TONIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN.  THE
MODELS SHOW FRONTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUEDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS OF SWEEPING THE
FRONTS THROUGH APPEARS PROBLEMATIC.  IF I TRUSTED THE WRF
I WOULD KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTION OF
CONVECTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.  THE SAME SCENARIO OCCURS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO KEEP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY DRY BUT THIS MAY NEED REVISITED.

TEMP WISE...CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE A FACTOR.  AM A BIT COOLER
THAN MY NEIGHBORS TOMORROW...BUT I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RAIN AND CLOUDS TO HOLD THINGS DOWN A LITTLE.  ALL IN ALL DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MAV AND MEX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  86  70  87 /  80  80  50  20
FSM   71  86  72  89 /  60  80  50  20
MLC   72  86  72  88 /  60  80  50  20
BVO   71  86  65  86 /  80  80  50  20
FYV   69  82  67  86 /  60  80  50  20
BYV   68  80  68  83 /  50  70  50  20
MKO   71  84  71  87 /  70  80  50  20
MIO   71  84  68  85 /  70  80  50  20
F10   71  85  71  86 /  70  80  50  20
HHW   72  91  74  89 /  40  60  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 10:37 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 9, 6:08 PM CDT, 5 hours 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
608 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
07/09/2007                   MCINTOSH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF OF AN OFFICE BUILDING AT MAIN AND OAK.

&&

PBS

Local storm report, Jul 9, 6:09 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW MASON              35.56N 96.36W
07/09/2007                   OKFUSKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WALNUT CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS AND STARTING TO FLOOD A
            NEARBY ROAD

&&

SFP

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 6:12 PM CDT, 5 hours 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

OKZ057-062-063-100015-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
612 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND NORTHEASTERN
     MAYES

AT 612 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHLOETA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHLOETA...CLEORA...BERNICE...
KETCHUM...SPAVINAW...LANGLEY AND DISNEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3634 9505 3636 9485 3663 9488 3660 9514

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 6:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

OKZ075-100045-
LATIMER OK-
645 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN LATIMER

AT 645 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PANOLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILBURTON...BENGAL...DAMON...PANOLA
AND RED OAK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3495 9532 3506 9518 3506 9492 3506 9492
      3496 9494 3494 9500 3487 9500 3486 9507
      3470 9505 3469 9531

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 6:46 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

OKZ049-100045-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
646 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 646 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTH OF CLOUDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLOUDY...NASHOBA...
HONOBIA...KIAMICHI AND ALBION.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3439 9540 3421 9523 3426 9505 3451 9505
      3451 9494 3468 9495 3469 9505 3469 9522

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 10:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 7:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	61 min
Jul 9, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Choctaw	60 min
Jul 9, 10:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	55 min
Jul 9, 11:21 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Creek	6 hr
Jul 10, 12:11 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Okfuskee	6 hr
Jul 10, 12:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	63 min
Jul 10, 5:09 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Creek	6 hr
Jul 10, 5:46 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Oklahoma, 2007 Flash Flood Watches in Arkansas, 2007 Every flash flood watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.