Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS74 KTSA 090017
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
717 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

OKC091-090027-
MCINTOSH OK-
717 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MCINTOSH COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
TULSA.

LAT...LON 3553 9582 3536 9597 3518 9601 3523 9562
      3545 9544

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS ENDED BUT
MAY STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND IT WILL TAKE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RESULT IN MORE
FLOODING. OVERNIGHT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. CONSIDERED EXPANDING IT BACK INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 3 INCHES IN 3
HOURS IN THAT AREA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH THAT THIS
WILL BE EXCEEDED. STILL COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS
THOUGH IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN EVERYWHERE.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AND UPPER
TROF. DISREGARDED THE WRF/NAM SOLUTION SO DRIED THINGS OUT BY
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

AN EVEN STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING ITS USUAL PROBLEM OF
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR
WHICH RESULTS IN THAT MODEL DELAYING THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO COME THROUGH MUCH EARLIER THAN THE GFS INDICATES. POST FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CONCERN AND ADDED POPS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BUT IF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DO INDEED
MATERIALIZE...DAYTIME READINGS MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN FORECAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  86  66  84 /  60  20  20  40
FSM   72  87  70  88 /  90  60  30  50
MLC   72  87  69  87 /  90  40  30  50
BVO   64  86  62  83 /  40  20  20  30
FYV   67  83  63  83 /  90  50  30  40
BYV   66  82  65  81 /  90  50  30  40
MKO   70  85  68  85 /  80  40  20  40
MIO   66  85  64  82 /  50  20  20  30
F10   70  85  67  85 /  80  40  20  40
HHW   72  89  71  87 /  70  50  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

...POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
        AREA...ENTIRE AREA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
        AREA...ENTIRE AREA. ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
        ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW... COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... WHICH WILL TEND TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD OVER TIME. DUE TO
THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA... THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THEREFORE... HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME... MAKING FLASH
FLOODING A SIGNIFICANT RISK.

IN ADDITION... THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS DOWNBURST
WINDS APPROACHING 60 MPH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... PUTTING AND END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

OKZ070-071-081845-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
1259 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH

AT 1259 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF PORUM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRIARTOWN...PORUM...WARNER
AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3553 9513 3546 9508 3541 9510 3538 9515
      3536 9515 3529 9521 3528 9523 3533 9542
      3545 9548 3562 9513

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

ARZ020-082015-
FRANKLIN AR-
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN

AT 230 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TURNERS BEND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PARADISE...TAFT...
BARNES...TURNERS BEND...CASS AND REDDING.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3572 9397 3562 9397 3563 9369 3577 9369
      3577 9387

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

ARZ020-082115-
FRANKLIN AR-
320 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 320 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTH OF VESTA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALIX...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
BRANCH...PETER PENDER...VESTA...MEG...DENNING...CECIL...ALTUS AND
WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3546 9407 3525 9408 3523 9392 3541 9370
      3552 9370 3551 9403

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

OKZ071-082330-
MCINTOSH OK-
528 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 528 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...HANNA...VERNON...
RAIFORD...VIVIAN...STIDHAM...ONAPA AND PIERCE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3528 9609 3513 9600 3528 9549 3551 9559

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E BROKEN ARROW        36.05N 95.75W
09/08/2007                   WAGONER            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS FLOODED

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E BROKEN ARROW        36.05N 95.75W
09/08/2007                   WAGONER            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS FLOODED

0750 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OILTON                  36.08N 96.58W
09/08/2007                   CREEK              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS...WITH SOME WASHED OUT AND
            IMPASSIBLE.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TALALA                  36.53N 95.70W
09/08/2007                   ROGERS             OK   PUBLIC

            SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED.

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
09/08/2007                   SEQUOYAH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A SIGN WAS BLOWN DOWN...HITTING AND DAMAGING A CAR.

&&

NMK