Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TORRENTIAL RAINS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING. NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT WFO TULSA
SINCE MIDNIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE 305K SURFACE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH BEST LIFT
LINING UP NICELY WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE TRUE SURFACE COLD
FRONT STILL RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND ALONG A OKC-TUL-JLN LINE. WITH ALL THESE FEATURES LINGERING
IN THE AREA AND A TROPICAL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK RIGHT BACK UP ON MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA. COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  84  65 / 100  70  20  30
FSM   86  71  84  69 /  70  90  60  40
MLC   86  71  82  67 /  60  90  40  30
BVO   81  64  84  61 / 100  50  10  20
FYV   82  68  82  65 / 100  90  50  40
BYV   80  67  82  63 / 100  90  50  40
MKO   82  69  82  65 /  90  80  40  40
MIO   81  65  83  62 / 100  60  20  20
F10   84  69  83  65 /  80  80  40  30
HHW   88  72  86  70 /  50  70  50  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
501 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE FORCES
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...MAKING FLASH FLOODING A SIGNIFICANT RISK.

THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE DOWNBURST WINDS APPROACHING
60 MPH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PUTTING AND END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
09/08/2007                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KTUL REPORTED 46TH AND SHERIDAN CLOSED DUE TO 3-4 FEET OF
            WATER OVER THE ROAD

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
09/08/2007                   TULSA              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TULSA PD REPORTED NUMEROUS VEHICLES STRANDED IN FLOOD
            WATERS ACROSS THE CITY

&&

EJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S COLLINSVILLE        36.32N 95.84W
09/08/2007                   TULSA              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TULSA OHP REPORTED HIGHWAY 20 CLOSED FROM HIGHWAY 169 TO
            THE ROGERS COUNTY LINE DUE TO FLOODING. UP TO 4 FEET OF
            WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD.

&&

EJC