Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 312225
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

KSC157-312300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-070531T2300Z/
REPUBLIC-
525 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REPUBLIC...OR ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CONCORDIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COURTLAND...REPUBLIC...SCANDIA...
BELLEVILLE...MUNDEN...CUBA AND NARKA.

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4001 9793 3970 9792 3974 9736 4000 9736

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 312246
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
544 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

KSC157-312300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-070531T2300Z/
REPUBLIC-
544 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

AT 542 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF MUNDEN...OR ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH OF
CONCORDIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNDEN AND NARKA.

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS 
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

AT 535 PM CDT...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WAS REPORTED ONE 
AND A HALF MILES NORTH OF REPUBLIC WITH THIS STORM. THIS IS A 
DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4000 9782 3979 9778 3985 9736 4000 9736

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
229 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE LITTLE
DURING THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...DELINEATING A TROPICAL AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WAS FORMING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH RESULTED IN A MODIFIED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS ALSO WILL BE ONE OF THE LIKELY FOCUSES FOR EVENING
CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE FOUND AT THE
SURFACE. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LOOKING ABOVE THE SFC...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW PROVIDING ENHANCED PERIODS OF LIFT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO
A MCS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT FAIRLY ROBUST AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A LLJ OF 35-40 KTS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS PLACE THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE BEST JUXTAPOSED. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.50
INCHES AND NEAR SATURATED GROUNDS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL LEAD TO
A FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR FRIDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE NOT YET RESOLVED FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY. BEST
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MCS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE STILL EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAIN FOCUS MAY CENTER ALONG FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL THAT MAY BE ONGOING. AS INITIAL ACTIVITY CLEARS THE
CWA...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION APPEARS REASONABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LESSER THAN TONIGHT.
LARGEST UNCERTAINTY FALLS ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THAT WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE INITIAL
ROUND OF CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...ANY NEW CONVECTION MAY FURTHER
AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE PERSISTENT INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL BE BRIEF WITH MAIN CONCERNS
IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS AND NAM BRING BOUNDARY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY AND PW OF 1.5 OR MORE IN THE COLUMN...HAVE KEPT SOLID
CHANCE POPS AND QPF NUMBERS GIVING UP TO .75 INCHES OF PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA. ALSO ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AS NEXT RIPPLE OF
ENERGY MAY INTERACT WITH HEATING AND BRING SHOWERS
THERE...AND DID SIMILARLY FOR SUNDAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST MON-WED
AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND BRINGS THE
RETURN OF THE SURFACE LEE TROF BY WED AFTERNOON. SOME INDICATIONS
FROM GFS OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON AND OFF THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PINPOINT AND/OR TIME ATTM. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US ON THURSDAY AND BRING NEXT FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INTO EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE NEAR HPC
GUIDANCE SLT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...ALSO SINCE GFS MAY BE THE
LEAST AMPLIFIED OF THE SOLUTIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP WED AND THURS.

BLAIR/67

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ADDRESSES SPECIFIC WEATHER EXPECTATIONS AS
RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE CEILINGS
TO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES WITH
CUMULONIMBUS TOWERS AND TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MINOR LLWS MAY EXIST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
OVERNIGHT.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM
  FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COUNCIL
  GROVE TO TOPEKA TO LAWRENCE
  LINE...KSZ008>012-KSZ020>024-KSZ026-KSZ034>040.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011400-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
354 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO BOTH FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COUNCIL GROVE TO LAWRENCE LINE.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG BLUE
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BIG BLUE RIVER ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
429 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

KSZ008-020-312230-
CLOUD-REPUBLIC-
429 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE
EAST AT 40 MPH AND APPROACH WESTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWEST CLOUD
COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 PM AND 515 PM CDT.  THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE.  PERSONS IN REPUBLIC AND
NORTHWEST CLOUD COUNTIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS STORM IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.