Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Topeka, KS

Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
229 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE LITTLE
DURING THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...DELINEATING A TROPICAL AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WAS FORMING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH RESULTED IN A MODIFIED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS ALSO WILL BE ONE OF THE LIKELY FOCUSES FOR EVENING
CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE FOUND AT THE
SURFACE. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LOOKING ABOVE THE SFC...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW PROVIDING ENHANCED PERIODS OF LIFT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO
A MCS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT FAIRLY ROBUST AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A LLJ OF 35-40 KTS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS PLACE THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE BEST JUXTAPOSED. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.50
INCHES AND NEAR SATURATED GROUNDS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL LEAD TO
A FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR FRIDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE NOT YET RESOLVED FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY. BEST
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MCS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE STILL EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAIN FOCUS MAY CENTER ALONG FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL THAT MAY BE ONGOING. AS INITIAL ACTIVITY CLEARS THE
CWA...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION APPEARS REASONABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LESSER THAN TONIGHT.
LARGEST UNCERTAINTY FALLS ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THAT WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE INITIAL
ROUND OF CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...ANY NEW CONVECTION MAY FURTHER
AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE PERSISTENT INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL BE BRIEF WITH MAIN CONCERNS
IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS AND NAM BRING BOUNDARY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY AND PW OF 1.5 OR MORE IN THE COLUMN...HAVE KEPT SOLID
CHANCE POPS AND QPF NUMBERS GIVING UP TO .75 INCHES OF PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA. ALSO ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AS NEXT RIPPLE OF
ENERGY MAY INTERACT WITH HEATING AND BRING SHOWERS
THERE...AND DID SIMILARLY FOR SUNDAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST MON-WED
AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND BRINGS THE
RETURN OF THE SURFACE LEE TROF BY WED AFTERNOON. SOME INDICATIONS
FROM GFS OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON AND OFF THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PINPOINT AND/OR TIME ATTM. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US ON THURSDAY AND BRING NEXT FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INTO EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE NEAR HPC
GUIDANCE SLT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...ALSO SINCE GFS MAY BE THE
LEAST AMPLIFIED OF THE SOLUTIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP WED AND THURS.

BLAIR/67

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ADDRESSES SPECIFIC WEATHER EXPECTATIONS AS
RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE CEILINGS
TO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES WITH
CUMULONIMBUS TOWERS AND TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MINOR LLWS MAY EXIST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
OVERNIGHT.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM
  FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COUNCIL
  GROVE TO TOPEKA TO LAWRENCE
  LINE...KSZ008>012-KSZ020>024-KSZ026-KSZ034>040.

&&

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