Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 240114
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
814 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSC127-240145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-070524T0145Z/
MORRIS-
814 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN MORRIS COUNTY...

AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILSEY...OR ABOUT 28 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EMPORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNLAP...COUNCIL GROVE AND COUNCIL GROVE LAKE.

AT 800 PM CDT...A SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WILSEY.

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3883 9655 3882 9649 3881 9638 3874 9638
      3873 9636 3852 9636 3852 9682 3874 9664

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 240144
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
844 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSC127-240154-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-070524T0145Z/
MORRIS-
844 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MORRIS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...

AT 844 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3883 9655 3882 9649 3881 9638 3874 9638
      3873 9636 3852 9636 3852 9682 3874 9664

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BIGGEST THREAT BEYOND SVR THIS EVENING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS INCLUDING HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 150 AND 200% OF NORMAL, INFLOW TO
SFC FNT, APPCH OF STG UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF ECHOES OVER WATCH AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER
PRECURSOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ANY COLD POOL OUTFLOWS MAY SHIFT AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FURTHER SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST WATCH AREA ACCORDINGLY.

AM FOLLOWING GFS ON FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO PCPN MOST OF AREA BY AFTN. SOME QUESTION ON
LINGERING PCPN SERN CWA BUT HAVE TRIED TO BLEND FCST WITH NEIGHBORS
SINCE IS A BIT UNCLEAR JUST WHERE ENOUGH LIFT WILL BRING RESIDUAL
SHOWERS YET LATE TMRW AFTN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A BIT ON
THURSDAY...COULD BE EVEN WARMER OVER NORTHWEST CWA IF ENOUGH SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS BEHIND PRECIPITATION AREA.

SK

CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS EXTENT FRONT WILL GET
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS LIFT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  NAM LINGERS SOME PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND A LITTLE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS
PUSHES PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.  AFTER COORDINATION...HAVE LEFT SOME
LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH.  FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO
THE SOUTH. WITH SOME FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND FLOW ALOFT IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY...AND HINTS OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY FOR THE
AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND AGAIN
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  LIFT FROM
THIS FEATURE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALL CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCE LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.  HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE MEMORIAL DAY INTO WEDNESDAY FORECAST UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUES THE
ABOVE PATTERN WITH MODELS HINTING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS.  BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME APPEAR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.  FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING. HAVE HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PF

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION ACROSS NE KANSAS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR 18Z TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING NE TO
SW JUST TO THE EAST OF MHK. VCTS AT MHK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
-TSRA BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING. SIMILAR AT TOP AND FOE...THOUGH
A BIT LATER WITH TIMING AND LESSER COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH BY
MORNING AHEAD OF FROPA AROUND 14Z AT MHK AND 15Z AT TOP AND FOE.
POSSIBILITY OF LLWS WITH FROPA...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW FOR FURTHER
ANALYSIS BY LATER SHIFTS.

EK

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF AN HERINGTON...MANHATTAN TO
SENECA LINE. KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION AND INCLUDED COUNTY
ZONE NUMBERS.

PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
440 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-242145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
440 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT TIMES...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT... BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS PERSIST OR REGENERATE
AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED FOR
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A HERINGTON...MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE.
DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...THIS WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME STILL
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. THERE IS A LINGERING
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THURSDAY NIGHT.

OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.  SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
422 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             WOODBINE                38.80N 96.96W
05/23/2007  M1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS

&&

JL

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ022-036-232200-
GEARY-RILEY-
432 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THROUGH 500 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN RILEY AND EASTERN GEARY
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
GEARY AND RILEY COUNTIES. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 298 AND 316 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
514 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ011-012-232315-
BROWN-NEMAHA-
514 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THROUGH 615 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEMAHA AND NORTHWEST BROWN
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
SABETHA...ONEIDA AND MORRILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ008-009-020-034-232330-
CLOUD-OTTAWA-REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-
622 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THROUGH 630 PM CDT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF REPUBLIC...WESTERN
WASHINGTON...CLOUD AND NORTHERN OTTAWA COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
GLASCO...SCANDIA...REPUBLIC...NORWAY...NARKA...MUNDEN...MORROWVILLE..
.MAHASKA...JAMESTOWN...HADDAM...CUBA...COURTLAND...CONCORDIA...CLYDE.
..BELLEVILLE...AURORA AND AGENDA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ011-012-024-240030-
BROWN-JACKSON-NEMAHA-
633 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THROUGH 730 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEMAHA...BROWN AND NORTHERN JACKSON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 50 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
SOLDIER...GOFF...WETMORE...NETAWAKA...KICKAPOO
RESERVATION...POWHATTAN...FAIRVIEW...MORRILL...HAMLIN...HIAWATHA...
RESERVE AND IOWA SAC AND FOX RESERVATION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             2 SSW BURDICK           38.54N 96.86W
05/23/2007  M1.00 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY NICKEL, BUT A FEW LARGER QUARTER SIZE STONES.

&&

JL