Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BIGGEST THREAT BEYOND SVR THIS EVENING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS INCLUDING HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 150 AND 200% OF NORMAL, INFLOW TO
SFC FNT, APPCH OF STG UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF ECHOES OVER WATCH AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER
PRECURSOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ANY COLD POOL OUTFLOWS MAY SHIFT AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FURTHER SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST WATCH AREA ACCORDINGLY.

AM FOLLOWING GFS ON FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO PCPN MOST OF AREA BY AFTN. SOME QUESTION ON
LINGERING PCPN SERN CWA BUT HAVE TRIED TO BLEND FCST WITH NEIGHBORS
SINCE IS A BIT UNCLEAR JUST WHERE ENOUGH LIFT WILL BRING RESIDUAL
SHOWERS YET LATE TMRW AFTN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A BIT ON
THURSDAY...COULD BE EVEN WARMER OVER NORTHWEST CWA IF ENOUGH SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS BEHIND PRECIPITATION AREA.

SK

CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS EXTENT FRONT WILL GET
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS LIFT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  NAM LINGERS SOME PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND A LITTLE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS
PUSHES PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.  AFTER COORDINATION...HAVE LEFT SOME
LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH.  FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO
THE SOUTH. WITH SOME FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND FLOW ALOFT IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY...AND HINTS OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY FOR THE
AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND AGAIN
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  LIFT FROM
THIS FEATURE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALL CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCE LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.  HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE MEMORIAL DAY INTO WEDNESDAY FORECAST UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUES THE
ABOVE PATTERN WITH MODELS HINTING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS.  BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME APPEAR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.  FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING. HAVE HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PF

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION ACROSS NE KANSAS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR 18Z TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING NE TO
SW JUST TO THE EAST OF MHK. VCTS AT MHK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
-TSRA BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING. SIMILAR AT TOP AND FOE...THOUGH
A BIT LATER WITH TIMING AND LESSER COVERAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH BY
MORNING AHEAD OF FROPA AROUND 14Z AT MHK AND 15Z AT TOP AND FOE.
POSSIBILITY OF LLWS WITH FROPA...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW FOR FURTHER
ANALYSIS BY LATER SHIFTS.

EK

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF AN HERINGTON...MANHATTAN TO
SENECA LINE. KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION AND INCLUDED COUNTY
ZONE NUMBERS.

PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1044 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-250345-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1044 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT TIMES...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
STRONGER STORMS PERSIST OR REGENERATE AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A
COUNCIL GROVE...MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME STILL
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. THERE IS A LINGERING
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THURSDAY NIGHT.

OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.  SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
138 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     HAIL             8 E MANCHESTER          39.09N 97.18W
05/24/2007  M1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL BRIEFLY.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
146 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     HAIL             1 N WAKEFIELD           39.23N 97.01W
05/24/2007  E0.88 INCH       CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
147 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
05/24/2007                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE FOOT OF WATER FLOWING OVER CRAWFORD STREET IN TOWN.

&&

JL

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
218 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

KSZ010-011-022-023-240815-
MARSHALL-NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
218 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

THROUGH 315 AM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEMAHA...SOUTHERN
MARSHALL...EASTERN RILEY AND WESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
MANHATTAN...WESTMORELAND...BLAINE...WHEATON...LILLIS...FRANKFORT...
VERMILLION...BEATTIE AND CENTRALIA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

KSZ022-035-036-240900-
DICKINSON-GEARY-RILEY-
257 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

THROUGH 400 AM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH
WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS IN THE LINE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RILEY...GEARY AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE SOUTHEASTERN MANHATTAN...ABILENE AND
JUNCTION CITY. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
290 AND 319 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     HAIL             MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
05/24/2007  M0.88 INCH       RILEY              KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

JL