Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
308 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND THE ATTENDANT WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND LIKEWISE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIGHT SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM A COVERAGE SENSE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS IN
DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
APPROACHING FORCING AND STRONG JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
SHAPING THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
WEST. ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SITKA TO
HAYS KANSAS MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WILL
BE DETERMINED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE MAIN HAZARD BEING
AT BEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE DETAILS AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER. UPPER LOW
SLOW TO MOVE OUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...ALBEIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CLING TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES...SKY...TD
AND WIND WERE ALL ALTERED THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
THINKING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

BLAIR

AVIATION...

TAF SITES HAVE RETAINED A BROKEN CEILING OF 7000FT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MORNING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BELOW 3
MILES...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE MOST ROBUST
ACTIVITY. REFER TO FORECAST DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
LOCALLY SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TOPEKA.

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SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
514 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ010-011-131045-
MARSHALL-NEMAHA-
514 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 545 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEMAHA AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE VERMILLION...AXTELL...BAILEYVILLE AND SENECA.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 AM     HAIL             PAXICO                  39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007  M1.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     HAIL             PAXICO                  39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007  M0.75 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBLAIR

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ026-039-040-131115-
DOUGLAS-JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-
541 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 615 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON...SHAWNEE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CONTINUOUS DEADLY LIGHTNING. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NORTHEASTERN
TOPEKA...TECUMSEH...GRANTVILLE...MERIDEN...LECOMPTON...PERRY...PERRY
LAKE... AND OZAWKIE. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 169 AND 193 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 350 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
546 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ055-131115-
OSAGE-
546 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 615 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO
PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
BURLINGAME...SCRANTON AND CARBONDALE.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

BLAIR