Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 130905
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSC127-130915-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-071013T0915Z/
MORRIS-
405 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN MORRIS COUNTY...

AT 405 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILSEY...OR ABOUT
26 MILES NORTHWEST OF EMPORIA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COUNCIL GROVE.

LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. MOVE INDOORS
NOW...AND AVOID WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE LIKELY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3853 9668 3857 9669 3870 9668 3874 9669
      3879 9644 3855 9646 3853 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 258DEG 30KT 3861 9654

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
308 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND THE ATTENDANT WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND LIKEWISE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIGHT SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM A COVERAGE SENSE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS IN
DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
APPROACHING FORCING AND STRONG JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
SHAPING THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
WEST. ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SITKA TO
HAYS KANSAS MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WILL
BE DETERMINED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE MAIN HAZARD BEING
AT BEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE DETAILS AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER. UPPER LOW
SLOW TO MOVE OUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...ALBEIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CLING TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES...SKY...TD
AND WIND WERE ALL ALTERED THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
THINKING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

BLAIR

AVIATION...

TAF SITES HAVE RETAINED A BROKEN CEILING OF 7000FT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MORNING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BELOW 3
MILES...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE MOST ROBUST
ACTIVITY. REFER TO FORECAST DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
502 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
LOCALLY SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT GENERALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TOPEKA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
228 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     HAIL             3 S ALMA                38.97N 96.29W
10/13/2007  M1.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES WITH GROUND COVERED

&&

SBLAIR

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
229 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ038-130745-
WABAUNSEE-
229 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 245 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WABAUNSEE COUNTY. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS
REPORTED THIS STORM WAS PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40
MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
MCFARLAND...PAXICO AND MAPLE HILL. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 343 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
308 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ038-039-130845-
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
308 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 345 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SHAWNEE AND EASTERN WABAUNSEE
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE WILLARD...ROSSVILLE...SILVER LAKE AND WEST TOPEKA. MOTORISTS
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 332 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ009-130845-
WASHINGTON-
322 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 345 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUOUS DEADLY LIGHTNING. SOME
COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE GREENLEAF AND BARNES.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ037-130900-
MORRIS-
326 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 400 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MORRIS COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BURDICK
AND WILSEY.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

BLAIR

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

KSZ024-026-039-130930-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-
345 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THROUGH 430 AM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 30
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF JACKSON...JEFFERSON AND SHAWNEE COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NORTHERN HOYT...MAYETTA...TECUMSEH...
GRANTVILLE...MERIDEN...PERRY LAKE...OZAWKIE...VALLEY FALLS...AND
OSKALOOSA.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.