Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS REMAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL EAST CENTRAL LATER TONIGHT AND THEN
SNOW FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
MIXED OUT INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ATTM...AND ARE STARTING TO SEE RESPONSE IN SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE SOME DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S...DRIER AIR HAS
PROGRESSED EASTWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN KS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S NOT FAR AWAY IN NE OK.

SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS...THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN MO AND INTO IOWA. INVERTED TROF TO
SET UP ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
POOLING OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS TROF AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND
DRAW OKLAHOMA DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. COOLING ALOFT FROM ADVANCING
UPPER TROF WILL BRING COOLING OVER OUR CWA AROUND 0Z. AT THAT
TIME...THINK CAP WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS IN OUR FAR SE
CWA...AND TO SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION WHICH INITIATES FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. 06Z RUC IS CLOSE TO CURRENT THINKING WHERE S/SE FLOW WILL
DRAW MOISTURE AND STORMS NORTHWARD ALONG I70 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN RUN INTO CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROF AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. WITH CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG...AND 0-6KM SHEAR
RUNNING 50 KTS WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...THINK WE WILL SEE
SOME SEVERE STORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

NEXT CONSIDERATION IS SNOW FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL
FREEZING MARK COMES INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD TOP BY 12Z.  HAVE SPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW EASTWARD...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX AND RAIN OUT AHEAD.  THINK WE
WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING THUNDER 6-9Z ALONG AND SE OF I35.  AS UPPER
STORM GATHERS STRENGTH AND SFC LOW DEEPENS...SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
SN/BLSN ADVISORY.  WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL IS TIGHT...BUT STRAIGHT
CONVERSIONS 10/1 OF QPF TO SNOW SHOULD BRING ADVISORY NUMBERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BETTER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...SATURATED
PV...AND TROWAL FEATURES NOT COMING TOGETHER OVER OUR AREA FOR HEAVY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL GO WITH 2-5 IN THE NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR STARTS TO DEEPEN FASTER...WILL NEED
TO BE SHIFTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA AND INCREASE FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UP FROM WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
(ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA WHERE SNOWCOVER EXPECTED TO BE DEEPEST)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOBE WILL
SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW STILL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...NOT ONLY WILL THE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW
NORTH/NORTHEAST CWA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE ADDED A
CHANCE FOR FLURRIES FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT EXPECT THE EVENT TO REMAIN LIGHT. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO BE NEARLY THE SAME OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY MOST AREAS.

AS CWA TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE AS 850 FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND 850 TEMPS INCREASE
RAPIDLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THEN MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 50S ON MONDAY...THEN GENERALLY 55 TO
60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEAR WILL BE
LIMITED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FCST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 12 PM CST
THURSDAY KSZ008>012-020>023-034.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-020130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
721 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER TO INCLUDE TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE GENERALLY EAST OF A
HERINGTON TO HIAWATHA LINE. HAIL ONE INCH OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH ARE LIKELY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE ARE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND TURN THE RAIN TO SNOW.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO
HOLTON...WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FORECAST ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BUT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR. TOTAL SNOWFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2
TO 5 INCHES. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
HOWEVER FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING...AS WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF HERINGTON TO HIAWATHA LINE.
ALSO SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1007 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

KSZ054-010430-
LYON-
1007 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THROUGH 1030 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HARTFORD AND NEOSHO
RAPIDS. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND
143 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE
A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1010 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HAIL             OLIVET                  38.48N 95.75W
02/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PHILLIPS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1051 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     HAIL             LYNDON                  38.61N 95.68W
02/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA AND PENNY SIZED HAIL FALLING, VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
            FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1113 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     TSTM WND GST     WELLSVILLE              38.72N 95.08W
02/28/2007  E60 MPH          FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1114 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     HAIL             OTTAWA                  38.62N 95.27W
02/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BN