River Flood Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 070938
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
438 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW AFFECTING NEMAHA COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC131-071738-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070908T0800Z/
/SNCK1.2.ER.070907T0711Z.070907T1200Z.070907T2000Z.NR/
438 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.2 FEET LATER
  THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 23.5 FEET...ST. BENEDICT ROAD FLOODS JUST NORTH OF THE 
  TOWN OF ST. BENEDICT. FLOOD WATERS OVERSPREAD CULTIVATED FIELDS 
  FROM ST. BENEDICT TO THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE.

$$

KSC117-071737-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070908T0935Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.070907T0731Z.070907T1300Z.070907T2135Z.NO/
438 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 4:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.1 FEET
  LATER THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 071311
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
811 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW AFFECTING NEMAHA COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC131-072111-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070908T0702Z/
/SNCK1.1.ER.070907T0711Z.070907T1130Z.070907T1902Z.NO/
811 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS AFTERNOON.


$$

000 
WGUS83 KTOP 071614
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1114 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW AFFECTING NEMAHA COUNTY
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC131-071644-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070908T0702Z/
/SNCK1.1.ER.070907T0711Z.070907T1130Z.070907T1405Z.NO/
1114 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TURKEY CREEK NEAR SENECA 8NW.
* AT 10:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.1 FEET. 
* THE CREEK FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9:05 AM FRIDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 9.7 FEET BY SATURDAY 
  MORNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LOW PUSHING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS ROCKIES.  REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE WERE OVER NEW MEXICO
PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED A COLD FRONT NEAR GOODLAND IN NORTHWEST KS EXTENDING NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE.  PRESSURE FALLS OF JUST UNDER A
MILLIBAR PER HOUR WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN KS AND NE...TIGHTENING A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA AT FORECAST TIME...AND WAS LOCATED NEAR MANHATTAN.
DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  A WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARY WAS
SEEMINGLY LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF CONCORDIA EXTENDING EAST
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH OF LAWRENCE.  LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR MHK AND SLN
WERE VEERED...PROVIDING SOME SORT OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN CWA.  WIND PROFILERS INDICATED RELATIVELY STRONG 30-35
KT H850 WINDS WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE
CWA TO PREVENT INITIATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.  SPC
MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR 3500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF KHMK AT 20Z.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ANY POSSIBLE INITIATION ALONG THIS
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CWA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY STRONG H850 WINDS
HAVE ADVECTED ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OF THE CWA TO HOLD OFF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.  WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY MORE THAN
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHOULD EXIST...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS STARTING OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS.  THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURE OF INTEREST TONIGHT IS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS
BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BREAK
THROUGH ANY REMAINING WARM AIR CAP AND ALLOW NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MUCH OF THIS SHEAR WILL BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SOME ORGANIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS.  UNLESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR A LINEAR MCS STORM MODE...WITH
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE IS
SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY LOW...AROUND 20 KTS FOR 0-6 KM.  THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WOULD LIKELY FAVOR A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT WITH
LARGE HAIL PRESENTING THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER
THIS EVENING.  PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT TYPICALLY LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE ENOUGH STRUCTURE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...BUT IF
THEY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY A TORNADO COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT.

LATER TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST COMPLICATING
THE PUSH THE FRONT WILL HAVE THROUGH NORTHEAST KS.  WITHOUT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND MAY
STALL OUT OVER EAST CENTRAL KS BY THE MORNING HOURS.  AT THIS TIME
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WOULD SEEM TO PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL KS AFTER DAWN...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE.
RAISED LOWS OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS AND CLOUD COVER PREVENTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOLING.  RAINFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS
MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

TOMORROW...MOISTURE FROM HENRIETTE WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.  12Z GUIDANCE INDICATED THE FRONT WOULD BE SOUTH OF MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THIS AREA MAY REMAIN BEHIND OR JUST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW.  BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS OUT...THE
REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE WILL LIKELY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  AGAIN...BECAUSE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DO NOT FEEL
WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT THE FRONTAL POSITION IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON HERE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

DC

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BOUNDARY ONLY SLOWLY WORKING OFF TO THE SOUTH...BUT THINGS SHOULD
QUIET DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY WEAK FLOW OT DOMINATE THE WEEKEND
PERIODS WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING...BUT NOT BEING TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST OR SOUTH. MAIN CONCERN MAY END UP BEING FOG WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASS THROUGH...AND THE RATHER STRONG LATE
SUMMER DYNAMICS SUGGEST SOME ALTERATION IN PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK
WINDS MAY OCCUR SO WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN THESE IS NOT
HIGH WITH FOG/STRATUS/HIGH CLOUD CONCERNS AND LIMITED MIXING.

HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS WAS
A COLD/STRONG OUTLIER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND SUNDAY NIGHT/S FRONT
SO KEPT TEMPS NEAR HPC VALUES. SHOULD HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.

65

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
BECAUSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY PUSH THROUGH TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT TIMING IN THE
TAFS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH REPRESENTS THE MOST LIKELY TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.  IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.  BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME POSSIBLE REMNANT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

DC

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
435 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
435 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH
OF NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING...THEN IMPACT NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINS...WITH THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING...AND LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SENECA                  39.83N 96.06W
09/06/2007  M4.85 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL. STILL RAINING HEAVILY. MINOR STREET FLOODING
            IN SENECA, MAINLY AT INTERSECTIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N OTTAWA              38.67N 95.27W
09/06/2007                   FRANKLIN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS WATER OVER 120TH NORTH OF
            MINNEAPOLIS AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 41.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W BERN                39.96N 96.03W
09/06/2007                   NEMAHA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 71 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN HIGHWAY 63 AND
            BERN. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N CENTRALIA           39.80N 96.13W
09/06/2007                   NEMAHA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGWAY 187 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN CENTRALIA AND
            HIGHWAY 36. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S BEATTIE             39.85N 96.42W
09/06/2007                   MARSHALL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 99 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN BEATTIE AND
            HIGHWAY 36. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MARYSVILLE              39.84N 96.65W
09/06/2007  M5.42 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   PUBLIC

&&