Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 071043
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

KSC111-139-177-071130-
SHAWNEE-OSAGE-LYON-
537 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM CDT FOR
LYON...OSAGE AND SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 536 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND BROADCAST MEDIA 
REPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD OCCURRING IN TOPEKA AT THIS TIME.  
SEVERAL WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN PERFORMED ALONG THE SHUNGANUNGA 
CREEK IN TOWN.  WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE AS DEEP AS 6 FEET IN 
PLACES.  WATER WAS REPORTED FLOWING OVER SEVERAL ROADS IN LYON AND 
OSAGE COUNTIES AS WELL.  LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL 
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 630 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNDON...
  EMPORIA...
  OSAGE CITY...
  AUBURN...
  ADMIRE...
  TOPEKA...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 188.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 168.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 347 AND 355.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FLOWING WATER IN A CAR OR ON FOOT.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3873 9635 3874 9593 3909 9594 3913 9600
      3913 9602 3921 9602 3921 9559 3908 9560
      3905 9558 3905 9550 3844 9551 3843 9595
      3817 9596 3816 9635

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...PACIFIC FRONT IS EVIDENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NE ON UEX RADAR.  BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE OBS INDICATE A MESO LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
WICHITA WITH LONG AXIS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG A
LINE FROM EASTERN NE...SOUTHWEST TO THE MESO LOW AND THEN FOR ALL
POINTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AT FORECAST TIME FLASH
FLOODING WAS ONGOING...ESPECIALLY IN SHAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES.
SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD...SOME TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUE TO TRAIN NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.  IR
SATELLITE INDICATES CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR ISSUANCE TIME...AND
RAINFALL RATES HAVE TAPERED BACK TO ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE TODAY.  UNFORTUNATELY PERSISTENT
RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO LOCAL RIVERS
AND STREAMS.  HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY
OVER AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS ONGOING AT 5 AM.  WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA WOULD EXPECT THIS REGION TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.  AFTER
THIS CURRENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THE PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THERE IS A
FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.  LOOKING AT THE PROFILER NETWORK THIS MORNING THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME VEERING IN THE H500 WINDS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WHICH COULD INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE PACIFIC FRONT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SMALL WHICH COULD MEAN A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO A MINIMUM
AND PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NOT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECTING THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL KS DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
DIRECTED AGAINST THE BOUNDARY.  AFTER THE CURRENT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST WOULD EXPECT ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE MUCH LOWER QPF VALUES THAN THE PAST 24 TO 48
HOURS.  THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE GROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS
SATURATED IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES...SO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OF THE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD.  DID LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE PACIFIC FRONT APPEARS TO PUSH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP
MOST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA...AND LOWEST POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES.  ONCE THE PACIFIC FRONTAL POSITION IS BETTER
UNDERSTOOD...POPS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED FROM SOME OF THE PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FRONT NOT EVEN IN THE FORECAST AREA YET.

EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE AS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS VERY BUSY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

CAVANAUGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

GDP

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
940 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ059-070315-
ANDERSON-
940 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ANDERSON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
KINCAID...LONE ELM AND GARNETT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     FLASH FLOOD      N SABETHA               39.90N 95.80W
05/06/2007                   NEMAHA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED FLOWING OVER RURAL ROADS NORTH OF SABETHA

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COUNCIL GROVE           38.66N 96.49W
05/06/2007                   MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RPORTED FLOWING OF SECTIONS OF ROAD BETWEEN 500
            BLOCK AND 1200 BLOCK. ALSO ON MAINSTREET.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1040 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE JUNCTION CITY      39.00N 96.79W
05/06/2007                   GEARY              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WTAER REPORTED RUNNING OVER CLARKS CREEK ROAD ABOUT 1
            FOOR DEEP.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1056 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     FLASH FLOOD      S CLAY CENTER           39.38N 97.12W
05/06/2007                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED OVER 9TH ROAD AN KIOWA SOUTH OF CLAY
            CENTER. ROAD CLOSED.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
05/06/2007  M4.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

BYRNE