Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 070305
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1005 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSC027-041-070400-
CLAY-DICKINSON-
1005 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
DICKINSON AND CLAY COUNTIES...

ALTHOUGH RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED AND EVEN ANY 
MODERATE RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SOME RUNOFF.  PONDING OF WATER IN 
LOW LYING AREAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.  A FEW BACK ROADS IN CLAY 
COUNTY HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABILENE...ENTERPRISE...WAKEFIELD...VINING...MORGANVILLE...
MANCHESTER...LONGFORD......CLAY CENTER

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3955 9695 3897 9696 3896 9694 3861 9694
      3862 9735 3956 9734

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

TODAY...PACIFIC FRONT IS EVIDENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NE ON UEX RADAR.  BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE OBS INDICATE A MESO LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
WICHITA WITH LONG AXIS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG A
LINE FROM EASTERN NE...SOUTHWEST TO THE MESO LOW AND THEN FOR ALL
POINTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  AT FORECAST TIME FLASH
FLOODING WAS ONGOING...ESPECIALLY IN SHAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES.
SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD...SOME TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUE TO TRAIN NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.  IR
SATELLITE INDICATES CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR ISSUANCE TIME...AND
RAINFALL RATES HAVE TAPERED BACK TO ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE TODAY.  UNFORTUNATELY PERSISTENT
RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO LOCAL RIVERS
AND STREAMS.  HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY
OVER AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS ONGOING AT 5 AM.  WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA WOULD EXPECT THIS REGION TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.  AFTER
THIS CURRENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST...THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THE PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THERE IS A
FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.  LOOKING AT THE PROFILER NETWORK THIS MORNING THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME VEERING IN THE H500 WINDS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WHICH COULD INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE PACIFIC FRONT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SMALL WHICH COULD MEAN A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO A MINIMUM
AND PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NOT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECTING THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL KS DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
DIRECTED AGAINST THE BOUNDARY.  AFTER THE CURRENT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST WOULD EXPECT ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE MUCH LOWER QPF VALUES THAN THE PAST 24 TO 48
HOURS.  THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE GROUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS
SATURATED IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES...SO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OF THE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD.  DID LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE PACIFIC FRONT APPEARS TO PUSH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP
MOST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA...AND LOWEST POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES.  ONCE THE PACIFIC FRONTAL POSITION IS BETTER
UNDERSTOOD...POPS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED FROM SOME OF THE PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FRONT NOT EVEN IN THE FORECAST AREA YET.

EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE AS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS VERY BUSY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

CAVANAUGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

GDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW OSKALOOSA          39.18N 95.35W
05/06/2007  M3.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 8 AM

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
528 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MELVERN                 38.51N 95.64W
05/06/2007  M3.82 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
535 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ020-034-062315-
CLOUD-OTTAWA-
535 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THROUGH 630 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF OTTAWA AND SOUTHERN CLOUD COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
TESCOTT...ADA...GLASCO...CULVER...DELPHOS...MINNEAPOLIS...CONCORDIA
AND BENNINGTON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N ADMIRE              38.73N 96.10W
05/06/2007  M4.50 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE THIS MORNING

&&

BYRNE

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ009-020-021-034-035-070045-
CLAY-CLOUD-DICKINSON-OTTAWA-WASHINGTON-
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THROUGH 745 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN CLOUD...CLAY AND EASTERN
OTTAWA COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN...PENNY SIZE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE MANCHESTER...OAK
HILL...LONGFORD...VINING...CLIFTON...IDANA...MORGANVILLE...WAKEFIELD.
..PALMER...CLAY CENTER...LINN...GREEN AND GREENLEAF.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
746 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ009-010-070130-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
746 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THROUGH 830 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN MARSHALL
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE
BARNES...HOLLENBURG...BREMEN...WATERVILLE...OKETO...MARYSVILLE...
HANOVER AND BLUE RAPIDS.