Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Great Falls, MT
NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2007, 3:44 PM MDT for Chouteau County, Pondera County, Teton County, Montana. It was in force for 31 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 2, 2007, 3:44 PM MDT (21:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 2, 2007, 4:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 31 min
- Issued by
- NWS Great Falls, MT
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Chouteau County, MT, Pondera County, MT, Teton County, MT
The radar
The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 3:45 PM MDT | HAIL 0.75 | 10 E Dutton, MT | WINTER WHEAT CROP DAMAGED |
| Jul 2, 3:50 PM MDT | HAIL 1.75 | 8 S The Knees, MT | WINTER WHEAT CROP DESTROYED COMPLETELY ... HAIL LASTED ABOUT 20 MINUTES |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2:36 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 20 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -359 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2390 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 8 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KTFX 022144 SVRTFX MTC015-073-099-022215- /O.NEW.KTFX.SV.W.0072.070702T2144Z-070702T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 344 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA... SOUTHEASTERN PONDERA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA... EAST CENTRAL TETON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA... * UNTIL 415 PM MDT * AT 340 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF BRADY TO 8 MILES EAST OF DUTTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE... NEAR THE KNEES AROUND 410 PM MDT. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LAT...LON 4812 11188 4779 11156 4788 11096 4811 11120 $$ THOMSON
1 follow-up statement
000 WWUS55 KTFX 022159 SVSTFX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 359 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007 MTC015-073-099-022215- /O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-070702T2215Z/ CHOUTEAU MT-PONDERA MT-TETON MT- 359 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL TETON...SOUTHEASTERN PONDERA AND WEST CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTIES... AT 356 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF THE KNEES TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE KNEES...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... THE KNEES BY 410 PM MDT... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. LAT...LON 4812 11188 4779 11156 4788 11096 4811 11120 $$ THOMSON
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 2:01 PM MDT, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 2:01 PM MDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER AN UNSTABLE SURFACE LEVEL AIRMASS BY LATE EVENING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND A STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MPJ THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ANCHOR OVER AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND MORE ON FRIDAY. COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING UP AND OVER THE AREA IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAMP && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1726Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN ROUTES...FROM JUST WEST OF KHVR AND KLWT AND EASTWARD...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR MVFR/IFR IN AND AROUND CONVECTION. THOMSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 56 89 57 93 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 53 86 55 90 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 57 91 58 95 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 52 88 53 93 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 43 83 44 85 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 50 86 52 90 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 57 92 57 96 / 30 0 0 0 LWT 55 85 55 89 / 30 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. && SHORT TERM...MPJ LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...THOMSON WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 5:30 AM MDT, 10 hours 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 530 AM MDT MON JUL 2 2007 MTZ008-014-015-052>055-031200- BEAVERHEAD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-JEFFERSON- BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN- 530 AM MDT MON JUL 2 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE HOT CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. MTZ009>013-044>051-031200- NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE- CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE- SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS- 530 AM MDT MON JUL 2 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE HOT CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 4:38 AM MDT | Red Flag Warning | TFX | Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson, Lewis and Clark, Meagher | 16 hr |
| Jul 2, 3:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Fergus | 45 min |
| Jul 2, 4:14 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Chouteau | 46 min |
| Jul 2, 4:30 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Fergus | 24 min |
| Jul 2, 4:41 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Blaine | 49 min |
| Jul 2, 4:59 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Hill, Liberty | 46 min |
| Jul 2, 5:29 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Blaine | 46 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.