Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING OF WEATHER EXPECTED...BEFORE COOLER AND A BIT
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AT 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
LARGE HAIL. EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS THEY
HAVE BEEN...THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF MONTANA PUTTING CWA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN SWITCHES
TO A WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. MODELS TRY TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP
SOME EACH DAY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MODERATION AS NOTHING
INDICATES A FAST WARMING TREND. CAMP

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARMER FORECAST. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. EK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND REMAINING WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE N-S COULD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z AND REACH A KLWT TO KHVR LINE BETWEEN 02 AND
05Z. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z BUT REMAIN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 10 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER FRONTAGE PASSAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  76  48  75 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  50  72  45  71 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  54  78  52  77 /  20  10  10  10
BZN  49  79  46  78 /  30  10  10  10
WEY  38  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  10
DLN  46  75  46  74 /  20  10  10  10
HVR  57  77  49  76 /  50  10  10  10
LWT  53  73  47  72 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR MTZ112>118.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ008-
011>015-047-050>055.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

MTZ008>015-044>055-201200-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
313 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S WOLF CREEK          46.88N 112.07W
08/19/2007  M60 MPH          LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT SIEBEN FLATS DOT SENSOR.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 W FAIRFIELD          47.62N 112.24W
08/19/2007  E50 MPH          TETON              MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 S CASCADE             47.18N 111.70W
08/19/2007  E60 MPH          CASCADE            MT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ALONG WITH PEA SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N WOLF CREEK          47.12N 112.07W
08/19/2007  E59 MPH          LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            59 MPH WIND GUST AT THE GARY COOPER BRIDGE DOT SENSOR
            NEAR DEARBORN.

&&

BRUSDA