Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING OF WEATHER EXPECTED...BEFORE COOLER AND A BIT
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AT 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
LARGE HAIL. EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS THEY
HAVE BEEN...THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF MONTANA PUTTING CWA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN SWITCHES
TO A WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ON THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. MODELS TRY TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP
SOME EACH DAY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MODERATION AS NOTHING
INDICATES A FAST WARMING TREND. CAMP

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARMER FORECAST. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. EK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND REMAINING WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE N-S COULD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z AND REACH A KLWT TO KHVR LINE BETWEEN 02 AND
05Z. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z BUT REMAIN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 10 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER FRONTAGE PASSAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH A BIT HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  76  48  75 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  50  72  45  71 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  54  78  52  77 /  20  10  10  10
BZN  49  79  46  78 /  30  10  10  10
WEY  38  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  10
DLN  46  75  46  74 /  20  10  10  10
HVR  57  77  49  76 /  50  10  10  10
LWT  53  73  47  72 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR MTZ112>118.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ008-
011>015-047-050>055.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

MTZ008>015-044>055-201200-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
313 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             MCALLISTER              45.44N 111.73W
08/18/2007  M1.25 INCH       MADISON            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCH HAIL...HALF DOLLAR SIZE...FELL IN THE CITY OF
            MCALLISTER.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             2 N DILLON              45.24N 112.63W
08/18/2007  M0.25 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MILES AN HOUR.

0258 PM     HAIL             3 N DILLON              45.26N 112.63W
08/18/2007  E1.00 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BREIF HEAVY RAIN 0.61 INCHES MEASURED.

0258 PM     HAIL             DILLON                  45.22N 112.63W
08/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BREIF HEAVY RAIN FILLED STREETS UP TO AND OVER SOME
            CURBS.

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W VIRGINIA CITY       45.30N 111.98W
08/18/2007                   MADISON            MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST BLEW OFF A SIGN 2
            FEET BY 2 FEET...AND THROUGH THE WINDSHIELD OF AN
            ON-COMING CAR...CAUSING INJURY TO THE DRIVER. MARBLE SIZE
            HAIL WAS LYING ON THE GROUND WHEN POLICE ARRIVED.

0425 PM     HAIL             3 N DILLON              45.26N 112.63W
08/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W PENDROY             48.06N 112.34W
08/18/2007  M56.00 MPH       TETON              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            56 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE PENDROY DOT LOCATION.

0500 PM     HAIL             MCALLISTER              45.44N 111.73W
08/18/2007  M1.25 INCH       MADISON            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCH HAIL...HALF DOLLAR SIZE...FELL IN THE CITY OF
            MCALLISTER.

0615 PM     HAIL             12 W WHITEHALL          45.87N 112.35W
08/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A MIX OF HAIL SIZES FROM PEA TO NICKLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY
            RAIN.

&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS RECIEVED FOR SATURDAY
AUGUST 18TH.

BRUSDA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             2 N DILLON              45.24N 112.63W
08/18/2007  M0.25 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MILES AN HOUR.

0258 PM     HAIL             3 N DILLON              45.26N 112.63W
08/18/2007  E1.00 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BREIF HEAVY RAIN 0.61 INCHES MEASURED.

0258 PM     HAIL             DILLON                  45.22N 112.63W
08/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BREIF HEAVY RAIN FILLED STREETS UP TO AND OVER SOME
            CURBS.

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W VIRGINIA CITY       45.30N 111.98W
08/18/2007                   MADISON            MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST BLEW OFF A SIGN 2
            FEET BY 2 FEET...AND THROUGH THE WINDSHIELD OF AN
            ON-COMING CAR...CAUSING INJURY TO THE DRIVER. MARBLE SIZE
            HAIL WAS LYING ON THE GROUND WHEN POLICE ARRIVED.

0355 PM     HAIL             2 W VIRGINIA CITY       45.30N 111.98W
08/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            MT   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL IN NEVADA CITY...CAUSING DAMAGE TO
            30 WINDOWS. SOME MINOR BRUISES TO PASSENGERS TRAVELING ON
            AN OPEN CAR TRAIN BETWEEN NEVADA CITY AND VIRGINIA CITY.
            SOME TREE DAMAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 50
            AND 60 MPH.

0425 PM     HAIL             3 N DILLON              45.26N 112.63W
08/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W PENDROY             48.06N 112.34W
08/18/2007  M56.00 MPH       TETON              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            56 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE PENDROY DOT LOCATION.

0500 PM     HAIL             MCALLISTER              45.44N 111.73W
08/18/2007  M1.25 INCH       MADISON            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCH HAIL...HALF DOLLAR SIZE...FELL IN THE CITY OF
            MCALLISTER.

0615 PM     HAIL             12 W WHITEHALL          45.87N 112.35W
08/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A MIX OF HAIL SIZES FROM PEA TO NICKEL WITH BRIEF HEAVY
            RAIN.

&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS RECIEVED FOR SATURDAY
AUGUST 18TH.

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
301 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             2 E SILVER CITY         46.76N 112.13W
08/19/2007  E0.50 INCH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA AND MARBLE SIZE HAIL WITH A WIND GUST MEASURED AT 52
            MILES AN HOUR.

&&

SAUCIER

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