Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS42 KTBW 260245
WSWTBW

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
945 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007

...CHILLY TEMPERATURES HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...

.CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS JANUARY ACROSS
MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RESIDENTS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR A CHILLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048-260345-
/O.CAN.KTBW.WC.Y.0002.070126T0900Z-070126T1400Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
945 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR
SO...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER OR MID
30S BY 2 OR 3 AM...THEN LEVEL OFF OR FALL MORE SLOWLY THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE BIT. WIND CHILL VALUES BY
DAYBREAK...THOUGH COOL...WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
OF 25.

THOUGH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...TONIGHT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS MONTH ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST. SHELTERED LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN NEARLY CALM ALL
NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER OR MID 30S...AROUND OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.  

RESIDENTS WITH TENDER VEGETATION...PARTICULARLY PLANTS THAT MAY
BE IN SPRING GROWTH MODE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS
SINCE LATE DECEMBER...SHOULD COVER THEM OR BRING THEM INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY THOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH EVEN A 3 TO 5 MPH WIND WILL PREVENT PROTECTIVE DEW FROM
FORMING.

$$

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-261400-
/O.CON.KTBW.WC.Y.0002.070126T0900Z-070126T1400Z/
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...
WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...
SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
945 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 5 MPH IN MANY SPOTS...WITH EXPOSED AREAS
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS STILL BLOWING AT AROUND 10 MPH. LIGHT WINDS
WITH STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND...AND 10 TO 15 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS
AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY AFTER THE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES WITH THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES TO OR BELOW 35 BY 4 OR 5 AM...WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 BY DAYBREAK. IN SOME AREAS...LOW WIND
CHILL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 8 AM.

&&

RESIDENTS VENTURING OUT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DRESS WARMLY. SEVERAL
LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL INSULATE YOU BETTER THAN A SINGLE COAT OR
JACKET. DRESS CHILDREN IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF WARM CLOTHING BEFORE
SENDING TO SCHOOL EARLY FRIDAY.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 35 OR LOWER...GENERALLY FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISED AREA.

$$

BSG

000 
WWUS42 KTBW 261059
WSWTBW

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
559 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007


FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-261200-
/O.CAN.KTBW.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070126T1400Z/
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...
WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...
SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
559 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. 


$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...LAST OF RAIN EXITING SOUTHERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME WITH SOME CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS.  CLOUDS THINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST.  LOOKS LIKE DURATIONS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WILL BE LESS THAN THE 3 HOURS NEEDED FOR A FREEZE WARNING SO WILL
JUST UPDATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER TODAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.  ELSEWHERE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL ZONES.  ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND
ONLY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS WINDS SHIFT FROM EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
MILDER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL RATHER COLD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
30S AND 40S.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE JET ALOFT AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE LOW...EXPECT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT.  A SECOND DRY REINFORCING FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY BRINGING COLD AND VERY DRY AIR DOWN THE STATE BEHIND IT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THEN QUICKLY MODERATE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE.  GFS IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND DEVELOPS A LOW IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WEDNESDAY.  IT THEN GRADUALLY TRACKS THE LOW EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY...KEEPING AT LEAST ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  DGEX ALSO HAS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT DOES NOT
DEVELOP IT INTO A LOW AND KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  IT THEN DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW IN THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF THURSDAY BRINGING SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS.  TRENDED TOWARD
THE WEAKER SOLUTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LAST BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SITES AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.  WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.  AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUNDAY SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES BY AND
INCREASING SPEEDS TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AND MOST
LIKELY ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH DURATIONS OF
4 HOURS OR MORE EXPECTED FROM HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES
NORTH.  WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WITH NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS
EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE NET MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  40  64  47  71 /   0   0   0   5
FMY  42  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   5
GIF  39  64  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
SRQ  40  64  47  73 /   0   0   0   5
BKV  31  63  35  72 /   0   0   0   5
SPG  46  62  51  71 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
500 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE INCREASING
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR SHORE AND TAMPA
BAY WATERS.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SOME LOW WIND CHILLS READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS OVER THE
NATURE COAST...AS WELL AS PASCO...POLK...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THESE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY
START WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA...SO ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
EXTRA CAREFUL WITH ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAMES ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA.
PLEASANT DRY COOL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JCM