Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 261033
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
533 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NATURE COAST AS WELL AS
PASCO...POLK...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES TODAY FROM 12
PM UNTIL 5 PM EST...

.A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE RED
FLAG WARNING AREAS TODAY.

FLZ050-262200-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0004.070126T1700Z-070126T2200Z/
PINELLAS-
533 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. FOUR
OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF PINELLAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY
START WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-051-052-262200-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0004.070126T1700Z-070126T2200Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
533 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. FOUR
OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PASCO...
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 261937
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
237 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NATURE COAST AS WELL AS
PASCO COUNTY TODAY FROM UNTIL 5 PM EST...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...AND
POLK COUNTIES TODAY...

.A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE RED
FLAG WARNING AREAS TODAY.

FLZ050>052-262045-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070126T2200Z/
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
237 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE 
REGION TODAY. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED 
ABOVE 35 PERCENT. EVEN IF DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP IN THE NEXT
HOUR...DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
4 OR MORE HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-262200-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070126T2200Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
237 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TODAY AS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND OVERRUNNING RAINS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE RAIN COMING TO AN END WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODEL TRENDS WILL DEPICT
50% POPS FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH AND LIKELY CATEGORY POPS (70%) FROM
THE BAY AREA SOUTH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...TAPERING BACK TO ZERO NORTH
INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND 30% FAR SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING TO 60 NORTH/CENTRAL
ZONES AND LOWER/MID 60S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS INTO CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS AND LOWER 40S
CENTRAL COASTAL AND FAR SOUTH. DURATIONS OF TEMPERATURES AOB 32 SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR SO OVER THE NATURE COAST...SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON AN FREEZE WARNING. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES A 2-3MB
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS CLOSE TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILLS
VALUES NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TERMS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NECESSARY WIND CHILL VALUES (25 DEGREES OR
LESS FOR THE NATURE COAST AND 35 DEGREES OR LESS ELSEWHERE)...SO WILL
DEFER THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUANCE TO THE DAY
SHIFT

AFTER A COLD START AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE PENINSULA AND GULF. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THOUGH THE
VERY COOL DRY AIR MASS WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS 60 TO THE LOWER 60S FAR NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETTING UP AS WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM. HOWEVER RETURN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD HELP TO MODIFY THE COLD AIR MASS
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...LOWER/MID 30S
FAR NORTH...LOWER/MID 40S CENTRAL AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FAR
SOUTH. DURING SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS FURTHER TO THE EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS INDUCES
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
MOISTURE RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE AGAIN SHOWING
CRITICAL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER MODEL WITH THE BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER ARRIVING SATURDAY EVENING AND CLEARING
MOST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY 18Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO 70
POPS OVER CENTRAL WESTERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY MORNING. DGEX IS AT
LEAST 6 HOURS SLOWER AND IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF PLACING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. ECMWF REMAINS VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH AN ILL DEFINED
LOW CIRCULATION DURING THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

CURRENT FORECAST STILL REMAINS AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS SO LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME. IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING...WILL KEEP FOLLOWING GFS FOR NOW. POPS ON
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH 40
PERCENT AND CHANCES OF RAIN...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20
PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING
TREND ON MONDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP
WITH EACH MODEL RUN...PROBABLY THE ONLY CONSISTENT MODEL TREND IN
THE LAST 3 DAYS. TEMPS IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO FOR WHICH CURRENT VALUES WILL BE LOWERED 2 TO 3
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY MINS WITH COLDEST VALUES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL TAF SITES OF TPA...SRQ AND PIE WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY AT SRQ. THEN RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SITES OF FMY AND RSW BY MID AND LATE MORNING.
A TRANSITION INTO MVFR TO VFR WILL TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND EXERCISE CATION FLAGS OVER THE NEAR SHORE AND BAY WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SUBSIDE
SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS/SEAS WILL AGAIN INCREASE BACK TOWARD EXERCISE
CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AN NORTH ON SUNDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
A TIGHT GRADIENT WITH WINDS/SEAS CONTINUING NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
MAY ALLOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE
OVER LEVY COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED TODAY.
ON FRIDAY THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID LOCK FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FROM A HILLSBOROUGH TO POLK COUNTY LINE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THIS WILL UPGRADE THE
CURRENT FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE NATURE COAST TO A RED FLAG LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING SOUTH TO INCLUDE PASCO...
POLK AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AS WELL. ON SATURDAY MAY AGAIN SEE
SOME POCKETS OF <35% RHS OVER THE SAME AREAS...HOWEVER RETURN EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE LONG DURATIONS...SO NO OTHER WATCHES OR FLAG
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  40  63  46 /  70   5   0   5
FMY  66  44  69  50 /  70   5   0   5
GIF  60  39  64  46 /  70   5   0   5
SRQ  63  41  64  47 /  70   5   0   5
BKV  60  31  62  35 /  50   5   0   5
SPG  58  45  62  51 /  70   5   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CITRUS-
      HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FROM BONITA
              BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

              SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
              FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM
              INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JCM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
451 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
451 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST WITHIN THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
TRAVELING TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALL MARINERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IF VENTURING INTO THE GULF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY ON THURSDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOW WIND CHILL READINGS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW
35 PERCENT. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NATURE COAST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. PLEASANT DRY COOL WEATHER WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JCM