River Flood Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WGUS82 KTBW 031509
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
1109 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MANATEE RIVER AT MYAKKA HEAD...
 RYE BRIDGE...AND MANATEE DAM.  A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
 THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA.

 HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY EVENING HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN MANATEE
 COUNTY AND SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

FLC081-040409-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071004T0533Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.071003T0249Z.071003T1200Z.071003T2333Z.NO/
1109 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANATEE RIVER AT MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 15 FEET...LOW SECTIONS OF STATEROAD 64 START TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.  
  AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.5 FEET ON SEP 27 
  2004.

$$

FLC081-040400-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-071004T0400Z/
/RYEF1.1.ER.071003T1125Z.071003T1415Z.071003T2200Z.NO/
1109 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANATEE RIVER AT RYE BRIDGE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.8 FEET...WATER REACHES THE ROADBED OF RYE BRIDGE
* IMPACT...AT 11.7 FEET...WATER REACHES THE FOUNDATION OF THE FIRST HOUSE
* IMPACT...AT 9.6 FEET...WATER REACHES THE LOWEST ELEVATION OF WOODSTOCK ROAD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 FEET ON SEP 7 
  2004.

$$

FLC057-040409-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-071004T1000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.071003T1723Z.071003T1800Z.071004T0400Z.NO/
1109 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
   FOR THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO 
  NEAR 11.5 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  
  TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.6 FEET ON AUG 23 
  2004.

$$

FLC081-031859-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-071003T1859Z/
/MTDF1.1.ER.071003T0952Z.071003T1200Z.071003T1259Z.NR/
1109 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANATEE RIVER AT MANATEE DAM
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON 
* AT 8 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 41 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 41 FEET 
* THE POOL LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 40 FEET...THIS IS THE NORMAL POOL ELEVATION.


$$

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11  15.7  WED 10 AM   4.4    3.5    3.2    2.9    2.7
 RYE BRIDGE   11  12.1  WED 10 AM  10.9   10.9    9.0    0.2    0.0

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11   8.2  WED 10 AM  10.0    7.0    5.5    4.4    3.5

MANATEE DAM
 MANATEE DAM  41  41.0  WED 08 AM  39.9   39.7   39.8   39.8   39.8

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING INTO NORTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE EACH DAY TO
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES AS BANDS DEVELOP IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW
IN THE GULF. VEERING PROFILE NOT OVERLY STRONG SPEEDWISE...BUT
MAY SEE SOME PROBLEMS ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

PROFILES BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME
MINIMAL. AGAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE THURSDAY TO CALL FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. HOWEVER MORE RIDGING ALOFT...PERHAPS
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW COMING INTO THE BAHAMAS FROM THE
EAST...WILL MEAN LESS RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH
40 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.

EVEN WITH MOISTURE...WARM THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS
WAS FIRST TO THE PARTY YESTERDAY IN DEVELOPING YET ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
TAKING THE FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE STRAITS AND
CUBA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.  CURRENT SATELLITE
DATA SHOW LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WHICH
INITIALLY SPLIT OFF FROM THE LARGER TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) FEATURE WHICH HAS AFFECTED OUR WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SO...NOW THAT THE GFS...84 HOUR ETA...AND CANADIAN ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...SEE LITTLE REASON NOT TO HEDGE TOWARD THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES TRULY TROPICAL IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT IT IS ORIGINATING FROM A WARMER CORE ENVIRONMENT AND
THIS ONE HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO GO...BUT THAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS WHATEVER DOES COME OUT
WILL STEADILY MOVE WEST WELL SOUTH OF US...AND ANOTHER STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES.  BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TAKES ONE MORE SHOT AS THE
CENTER OF THE STACKED SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS.
STILL...HAVE LEFT MODERATE CHANCES (50/40) GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINS AS IS SOUTHEAST FLOW.

BY MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SPRAWLING AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TAKES OVER...AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH.  NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED ON NIL OR ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION JUST YET ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE LURKING NEARBY...SO HAVE RETAINED 30 PERCENT CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE BUMPED BACK TO 90 OR ABOVE ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY/MONDAY.  TUESDAY MAY BE A SMIDGE COOLER AS SOME LOWERING OF
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARRIVES COURTESY OF LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...BUT ALL IN ALL VALUES WILL RUN SOME 2 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNING:  WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA FOR
ANY IMPACT OF SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING NEARBY SURFACE
MOISTURE AFTER LAST NIGHTS RAIN DUMP IN NORTHEAST MANATEE AND
SOUTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH...FOR NOW HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILING.  KTPA IS CARRYING MVFR AND WILL MONITOR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR MIST.  WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT A LOW CEILING TO FORM
BY 14Z OR SO...SO HAVE SCT-BKN MVFR (2000 FEET) THROUGH 16Z...THEN I
RAISE THAT A LITTLE.  RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GET
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNDERWAY BEFORE NOON...FOLLOWED BY
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON. LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL HOLD CEILINGS NEAR THE MVFR/VFR LINE (3000 FT) ALL
AFTERNOON...OBVIOUSLY DROPPING TO LOW MVFR WITH IFR VISIBILITY IN
STORMS.

PATCHY LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...AS
ARE REMNANT SHOWERS...GIVEN CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN OVER THE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER STILL SEEING VALUES IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL GO WITH HEADLINE THROUGH 12Z...THEN EXPECT
ALL WATERS TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY
GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS. NEXT CONCERN MAY BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF MODELS
ARE CALLING FOR LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  76 /  50  40  60  30
FMY  90  76  90  75 /  50  40  60  30
GIF  91  76  91  75 /  40  40  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  50  40  60  30
BKV  91  73  90  73 /  40  40  60  30
SPG  88  78  89  78 /  50  40  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
351 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031515-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
351 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

CORRECTED TO ADD WORDING FOR HEAT IMPACTS

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINS...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK TURNING OF THE
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COLLIDING WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATION. SHOULD THIS PATTERN
OCCUR...AREAS QUICKLY MAY SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS ALSO MAY
EXCEED BANK FULL.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY EVENING IN SOUTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH AND EASTERN
MANATEE COUNTIES CAUSED THE MANATEE RIVER AT MYAKKA HEAD TO RISE
TO FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE WATERS TO QUICKLY RECEDE BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS BASIN AND OTHER
NEARBY BASINS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS.

...HEAT IMPACT...
MUGGY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S TODAY. AT RISK
RESIDENTS...INCLUDING SMALL CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND
INFIRMED...SHOULD REMAIN IN AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EACH
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY EXPECT HEAVY
RAINS...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

...HEAT IMPACT...
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO GET INTO THE 100S FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

SHARP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
357 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 W MYAKKA HEAD         27.47N 82.21W
10/02/2007  M7.07 INCH       MANATEE            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            MEASURED AT USGS RIVER GAGING LOCATION. TOTAL FELL
            GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1030 PM OCTOBER 2. RESULTED IN
            RAPID RISE OF MORE THAN 9 FEET IN 4 HOURS OF MANATEE
            RIVER REACHING FLOOD STAGE. NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING
            AS OF THIS WRITING.

1115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S SUN CITY CENTER     27.67N 82.35W
10/02/2007  M3.79 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            MEASURED AT USGS RIVER GAGING STATION. HEAVIEST RAIN FELL
            GENERALLY FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1030 PM. RADAR ESTIMATED
            RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN FORT LONESOME. FLASH
            FLOODING NOT REPORTED AS OF THIS WRITING.

&&

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
459 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FLZ065-030945-
LEE-
459 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

...TORRENTIAL RAINS POUNDING SANIBEL AND ST. JAMES CITY WITH MINOR
FLOODING LIKELY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AND TRAINING ON A NORTH SOUTH
AXIS...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT INTRACOASTAL LEE COUNTY...UNTIL 545
AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SHOULD
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP...FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

BSG