Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2007
Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Feb 5, 2007, 1:23 PM EST for Pinellas County, Polk County, Sumter County, Florida. It took effect at Feb 6, 2007, 8:10 AM EST. It was in force for 10 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 5, 2007, 1:23 PM EST (18:23 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 6, 2007, 8:10 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 6, 2007, 6:00 PM EST
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Counties Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1708 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 72 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -89 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -41 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS82 KTBW 051823 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 123 PM EST MON FEB 5 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR LEVY...CITRUS... SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES... .COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FLZ039-042-043-048-052300- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0009.070206T1600Z-070206T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0009.070206T1600Z-070206T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070205T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 123 PM EST MON FEB 5 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EASE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD 60 WHICH WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER THE WARNING AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ JCM
4 follow-up statements
000 WWUS82 KTBW 061011 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 511 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN LEVY COUNTY WEDNESDAY FOR HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR POSSIBLY 4 OR MORE HOURS... .COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING TODAY. THIS DRY AIR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY BUT MODERATES SOME. FLZ039-062300- /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0010.070207T1600Z-070207T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.070206T1600Z-070206T2300Z/ LEVY- 511 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EASE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR POSSIBLY 4 OR MORE HOURS OVER THE WATCH AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ042-043-048-062300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.070206T1600Z-070206T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 511 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EASE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
000 WWUS82 KTBW 061310 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 810 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN LEVY COUNTY WEDNESDAY FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... .COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE STATE DURING TODAY. THIS DRY AIR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY BUT MODERATES SOME. FLZ049>051-062300- /O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0009.070206T1600Z-070206T2300Z/ PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH- 810 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING THE DRIEST AIR DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE TO AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-062300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.070206T1600Z-070206T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0010.070207T1600Z-070207T2300Z/ LEVY- 810 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EASE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S. THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR POSSIBLY 4 OR MORE HOURS OVER THE WATCH AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ042-043-048-062300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.070206T1600Z-070206T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 810 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EASE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WHICH WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ RJS/JCM
000 WWUS82 KTBW 062038 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 338 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN LEVY COUNTY WEDNESDAY FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... .COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE STATE DURING TODAY. THIS DRY AIR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY BUT MODERATES SOME. FLZ052-062300- /O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070206T2300Z/ POLK- 338 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S...AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-062300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070206T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0010.070207T1600Z-070207T2300Z/ LEVY- 338 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR POSSIBLY 4 OR MORE HOURS OVER THE WATCH AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ042-043-048>051-062300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070206T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH- 338 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
000 WWUS82 KTBW 062326 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 626 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN LEVY COUNTY WEDNESDAY FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... .DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY OFF THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY REMAIN TO BRING BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO LEVY COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLZ039-071130- /O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070206T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0010.070207T1600Z-070207T2300Z/ LEVY- 626 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS ARE STILL BELOW 35 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY PERSIST AND RESULT IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ042-043-048>052-070030- /O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070206T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- 626 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPERIENCING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY CLIMB TO ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 5, 1:11 PM EST, 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 5, 1:11 PM EST, 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
111 PM EST MON FEB 5 2007
.SYNOPSIS...DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE INTO THE TEENS OVER SOUTH
GEORGIA. ANOTHER FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ABOUT TO KICK
EAST OF THE STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL DRY OUT AS IT TURNS AROUND TO
WEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHWEST. THUS EXPECTING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT OVER THE
NATURE COAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH FREEZING IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER NATURE COAST LOCATIONS. EXPECT DURATIONS TO BE
LONGER FOR INLAND LEVY COUNTY AND HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
TONIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIP...SHOULD START TO SEE A DRYING OUT OF ECHOES ON RADAR
AS FRONT TO OUR SOUTH DISSIPATES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORE LIGHT
RAINS TONIGHT...AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINS DOWN
SOUTH.
EVEN WITH THE CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY...COOL AIR FILTERING IN
TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN
READINGS WILL GO TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...12Z GFS RUN CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERN
PENINSULA DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING DGEXS AND THE UKMET ARE NOT AS AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH MEAN ENSEMBLE POPS ONLY 20%. GIVEN THIS WILL DEPICT 20% POPS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
BETWEEN 20-30% CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY ON THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES IN
TIMING...INTENSITY AND POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ON FRIDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH THE FRONT
OTHERWISE LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY
PASSAGE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 12Z MEX NUMBERS CAME
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM PREVIOUS RUN...SO I LOWERED MAX/MIN TEMPS BY
A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.MARINE...AS FRONT PASSES THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE GRADIENT TO QUICKLY RELAX...ALLOWING US TO DROP HEADLINES UP
THERE. HOWEVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THE WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP INTO ADVISORY RANGE UNTIL LATE EVENING...THUS EXTENDED THE
HEADLINES FOR THOSE ZONES. BY MORNING ALL HEADLINES SHOULD BE DOWN AS
GRADIENT RELAXES ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN AREAS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS AOA 10KFT. ON TUESDAY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAYS WARNING SHOULD STILL VERIFY GIVEN THINNING
CIRRUS DECK UP NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES UP NORTH...EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE TO MEET
DURATIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO A WARNING. DURATIONS ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE SAME REGION LOOK
LIKE THEYLL BE LIMITED TO 2-3 HOURS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANOTHER WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 41 66 48 73 / 20 10 0 5
FMY 48 69 52 78 / 40 20 0 5
GIF 43 65 47 75 / 20 10 0 5
SRQ 44 66 48 73 / 20 10 0 5
BKV 32 65 34 74 / 10 0 0 5
SPG 47 64 53 72 / 20 10 0 5
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-
HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CITRUS-
HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM.
&&
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCMHazardous weather outlook, Feb 5, 4:14 AM EST, 9 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 414 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-051515- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 414 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND TARPON SPRINGS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS BETWEEN TARPON SPRINGS AND SUWANNEE RIVER FOR NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY FOR THE COUNTIES OF LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AMD HERNANDO FOR HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT FOR POSSIBLY UP TO 4 HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 5:16 AM EST | Fire Weather Watch | TBW | Sumter | 8 hr |
| Feb 5, 1:15 PM EST | Freeze Warning | TBW | 19 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.