Freeze Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
111 PM EST MON FEB 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE INTO THE TEENS OVER SOUTH
GEORGIA. ANOTHER FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ABOUT TO KICK
EAST OF THE STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL DRY OUT AS IT TURNS AROUND TO
WEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHWEST. THUS EXPECTING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT OVER THE
NATURE COAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH FREEZING IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER NATURE COAST LOCATIONS. EXPECT DURATIONS TO BE
LONGER FOR INLAND LEVY COUNTY AND HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...SHOULD START TO SEE A DRYING OUT OF ECHOES ON RADAR
AS FRONT TO OUR SOUTH DISSIPATES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORE LIGHT
RAINS TONIGHT...AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINS DOWN
SOUTH.

EVEN WITH THE CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY...COOL AIR FILTERING IN
TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...WITH READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN
READINGS WILL GO TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...12Z GFS RUN CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERN
PENINSULA DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING DGEXS AND THE UKMET ARE NOT AS AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH MEAN ENSEMBLE POPS ONLY 20%. GIVEN THIS WILL DEPICT 20% POPS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
BETWEEN 20-30% CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY ON THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES IN
TIMING...INTENSITY AND POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ON FRIDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH THE FRONT
OTHERWISE LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY
PASSAGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 12Z MEX NUMBERS CAME
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM PREVIOUS RUN...SO I LOWERED MAX/MIN TEMPS BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...AS FRONT PASSES THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE GRADIENT TO QUICKLY RELAX...ALLOWING US TO DROP HEADLINES UP
THERE. HOWEVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THE WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP INTO ADVISORY RANGE UNTIL LATE EVENING...THUS EXTENDED THE
HEADLINES FOR THOSE ZONES. BY MORNING ALL HEADLINES SHOULD BE DOWN AS
GRADIENT RELAXES ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL  AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN AREAS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS AOA 10KFT. ON TUESDAY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAYS WARNING SHOULD STILL VERIFY GIVEN THINNING
CIRRUS DECK UP NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT.

WITH THE CLEARING SKIES UP NORTH...EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE TO MEET
DURATIONS OVER THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO A WARNING. DURATIONS ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE SAME REGION LOOK
LIKE THEYLL BE LIMITED TO 2-3 HOURS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANOTHER WATCH FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  41  66  48  73 /  20  10   0   5
FMY  48  69  52  78 /  40  20   0   5
GIF  43  65  47  75 /  20  10   0   5
SRQ  44  66  48  73 /  20  10   0   5
BKV  32  65  34  74 /  10   0   0   5
SPG  47  64  53  72 /  20  10   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
414 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-051515-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
414 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ON GULF WATERS BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND TARPON SPRINGS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS BETWEEN TARPON SPRINGS AND SUWANNEE RIVER
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS
THAN 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AMD HERNANDO FOR HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND
35 PERCENT FOR POSSIBLY UP TO 4 HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.