Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2007

Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

February 17, 20075 counties in Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Feb 17, 2007, 3:48 PM EST for 5 counties in Florida. It took effect at Feb 18, 2007, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2007, 3:48 PM EST (20:48 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 18, 2007, 10:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 18, 2007, 7:00 PM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Counties DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2007-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2007-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -15 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1539 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 172048
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
348 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY WITH 20 MPH OR HIGHER
20 FOOT WINDS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT...
...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING THIS EVENING FOR THE NATURE
COAST AND A SLIVER OF INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A RESURGENCE OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL POUR ACROSS THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
MONDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO FALL WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FLZ048-049-051-056-061-180900-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-070218T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0014.070218T1500Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0016.070218T1500Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0015.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-HARDEE-DE SOTO-
348 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST SUNDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS IN
FROM THE GULF...WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW 60.
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE FROM 37 TO 50 PERCENT AND THESE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...OR RISE A BIT MORE...THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER VERY DRY AIR BACK
ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...BARELY REACHING THE LOWER OR MID 50S...DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID OR UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING LOCATIONS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
COASTAL COUNTIES. WHILE DURATION OF CRITICAL HUMIDITY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WOULD NOT ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO
TRAP ANY RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S...HUMIDITY WILL
PLUMMET RAPIDLY BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...AND LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING A THREAT
FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND. 

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ062-065-180900-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-070218T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0015.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
348 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS IN
FROM THE GULF...WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT AND THESE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...OR RISE A BIT MORE...THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER DRIER AIR BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...ONLY REACHING 60...DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WOULD NOT ONLY
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO TRAP ANY RAPIDLY
SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...THOUGH A RED FLAG WARNING
IS NOT IN EFFECT...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS MAY STILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TOWARD 70...HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY NOON...AND LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25
AND 30 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING A THREAT
FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE DISCOURAGED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-052-057-180000-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0014.070218T1500Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0016.070218T1500Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0015.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-070218T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS-
348 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INLAND NATURE COAST COUNTIES AS WELL AS EASTERN
SUMTER...EASTERN POLK...AND MUCH OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE
15 MPH ARE COMBINING WITH REMAINING DRY AIR TO CONTINUE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN A SLIVER FROM EASTERN LEVY AND NORTHEASTERN CITRUS
COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUMTER COUNTY..EASTERN POLK
COUNTY...AND MUCH OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY. HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 28 AND 33 PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM IN THESE
AREAS...THEN RISE ABOVE 35 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER VERY DRY AIR BACK
ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...BARELY REACHING THE LOWER OR MID 50S...DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID OR UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING LOCATIONS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
COASTAL COUNTIES. WHILE DURATION OF CRITICAL HUMIDITY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WOULD NOT ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO
TRAP ANY RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S...HUMIDITY WILL
PLUMMET RAPIDLY BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...AND LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT FROM NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY THROUGH LEVY COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING
A THREAT FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ050-055-060-180900-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0015.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
PINELLAS-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
348 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...BURNING NOT RECOMMENDED SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW 
MIXING HEIGHTS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SUNDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER DRIER AIR BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...ONLY REACHING THE MID OR UPPER 50S...DEW POINTS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUNCOAST. WHILE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 35
PERCENT...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WOULD NOT ONLY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO
TRAP ANY RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...THOUGH A
RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS MAY STILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S...HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...AND LIKELY BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 25 PERCENT WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST AND 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE AS THE DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING
A THREAT FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG
2 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 180029
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
729 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY WITH 20 MPH OR HIGHER
20 FOOT WINDS... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF 4 OR MORE HOURS OF
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A RESURGENCE OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL POUR ACROSS THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
MONDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY TO FALL WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FLZ039-042-043-052-057-181230-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-070218T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0016.070218T1500Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0015.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS-
729 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER VERY DRY AIR BACK
ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...BARELY REACHING THE LOWER OR MID 50S...DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID OR UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES. WHILE DURATION OF CRITICAL HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WOULD NOT ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO
TRAP ANY RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S...HUMIDITY WILL
PLUMMET RAPIDLY BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...AND LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS AS LOW
AS 15 PERCENT FROM NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY THROUGH LEVY COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...
MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ048-049-051-056-061-181230-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0016.070218T1500Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0015.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-HARDEE-DE SOTO-
729 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SUNDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER VERY DRY AIR BACK
ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...BARELY REACHING THE LOWER OR MID 50S...DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID OR UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING LOCATIONS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
COASTAL COUNTIES. WHILE DURATION OF CRITICAL HUMIDITY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 4 HOURS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WOULD NOT ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO
TRAP ANY RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S...HUMIDITY WILL
PLUMMET RAPIDLY BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...AND LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING A THREAT
FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ050-055-060-062-065-181230-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0015.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
PINELLAS-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
729 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SUNDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER DRIER AIR BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...ONLY REACHING 60...DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WHILE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT...
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WOULD NOT
ONLY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO TRAP ANY
RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...THOUGH A RED
FLAG WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
MAY STILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TOWARD 70...HUMIDITY WILL
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY NOON...AND LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
25 AND 30 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING A THREAT
FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE DISCOURAGED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

BSG
000 
WWUS82 KTBW 182107
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
407 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT A SLIVER
OF INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY FOR 4
OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP JUST ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE KEEPING HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY IN MOST AREAS. BY MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS...WILL
CREATE LONG DURATION OF LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS MOST AREAS. MODERATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.


FLZ048-049-051-056-061-190015-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0017.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-HARDEE-DE SOTO-
407 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: DESPITE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT IN
MOST AREAS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER OR MID 50S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER...LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
AND ALSO TRAP ANY RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S...HUMIDITY WILL
PLUMMET RAPIDLY BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...AND LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING A THREAT
FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THROUGH MONDAY.


$$

FLZ039-042-043-052-057-190000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0017.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-POLK-HIGHLANDS-
407 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING MAINLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LEVY...NORTHEAST CITRUS...NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUMTER...AND
EASTERN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT IN ALL AREAS FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND GRADUALLY
FALLING DEW POINTS ARE ALLOWING HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP NEAR OR
JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. AS OF 4 PM...MUCH OF LEVY...NORTHEAST
CITRUS...AND NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY HAD HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT WITH CONTINUING WIND GUSTS OF 20 MPH. CONDITIONS IN
EASTERN POLK AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY WERE APPROACHING RED
FLAG CRITERIA. ELSWEWHERE IN THESE COUNTIES...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT.

THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WOULD NOT ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT ALSO
TRAP ANY RAPIDLY SPREADING SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE.

MONDAY: AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S...HUMIDITY WILL
PLUMMET RAPIDLY BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING...AND LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING A THREAT
FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND.

PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THROUGH MONDAY.


$$

FLZ050-055-060-062-065-190015-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0017.070219T1600Z-070219T2300Z/
PINELLAS-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
407 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. 

AS TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 MONDAY
AFTERNOON... HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY NOON...AND
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR SMOKE TO BE TRAPPED
NEAR THE GROUND. PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE DISCOURAGED.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

BSG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 17, 2:13 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 2:13 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
213 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH TN/MS/E LA AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WARMER
GULF WATERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THIS FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THESE LOWS COUPLED WITH THE
WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS IN PASCO/NE HILLSBOROUGH AND NW POLK TOWARD MORNING. DO
NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WIND CHILLS BELOW 35 AND WILL
THEREFORE LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF LOWEST WC AROUND 35 IN THE ZONES.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN
BE VERY COLD AS THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS IN OVER NORTHERN
FL/PANHANDLE ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. HAVE RAISED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE AS LOWS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 INLAND CENTRAL
TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST...AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE
PROBLEMS WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST CONSENSUS IS THAT NEAR
ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SETUP A RETURN
FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THERE WILL BE
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT WAVE AND IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH STILL SOME
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CAUSING SOME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUING A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW BRINGING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEXT SATURDAY A
DEEP TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT AND SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA BY 10PM. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 1AM MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS WED EVENING AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4000 FEET ARE MAKING IT
ONSHORE FROM AROUND SARASOTA SOUTH TO FORT MYERS AND DISSIPATING
QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE INLAND.  FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET...BARELY VFR...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE.  VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ONLY REAL
PROBLEM BEING THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE SOME MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE COASTAL AREAS FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ONLY NEED TO DROP TO 34 PERCENT SO WILL UPGRADE TO A WARNING
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO RAISED A WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE DRIEST AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL MODERATE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY STILL SEE 1-3 HOURS OF LOW HUMIDITIES TUE AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTH AND INTERIOR. NO CONCERNS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  57  36  62 /  30   5   0   0
FMY  48  63  38  68 /  30  10   0   0
GIF  42  58  35  64 /  30   5   0   0
SRQ  48  57  38  64 /  30   5   0   0
BKV  38  56  26  63 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  48  56  43  62 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-
     PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM INCLUDING
     TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 17, 4:54 AM EST, 10 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
454 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-171600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
454 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AND COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE BURNING SHOULD BE
AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BRING HIGH WAVE AND SURF ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 8 FEET...ROUGH
SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SOME POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS WITH WINDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HIGH WAVES AND ROUGH
SEAS FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

ALSO...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
FLORIDA FOR WHICH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE
CASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL
DESCEND UPON THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

IF CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PREVAILS THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANOTHER FREEZING EVENT ON MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF
INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-171600-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
454 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AND COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL WESTERN FLORIDA. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
SARASOTA...MANATEE AND PINELLAS WHERE THE WIND REGIME MAY HELP IN
PREVENTING EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOW RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE DAY.

WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BRING HIGH WAVE AND SURF ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 8
FEET...ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT AND SOME POSSIBLE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH WINDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HIGH WAVES AND ROUGH
SEAS FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

ALSO...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
FLORIDA FOR WHICH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT THE COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

IF CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PREVAILS THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANOTHER FREEZING EVENT ON MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF
INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 5:46 AM ESTFire Weather WatchTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Polk, Sumter10 hr
Feb 17, 5:46 AM ESTRed Flag WarningTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Polk, Sumter13 hr
Feb 17, 3:48 PM ESTFire Weather WatchTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Pinellas, Polk, Sumter50 hr
Feb 17, 4:00 PM ESTFreeze WatchTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Polk, Sumter41 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.