Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2007

Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

February 17, 20075 counties in Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Feb 17, 2007, 5:46 AM EST for 5 counties in Florida. It took effect at Feb 17, 2007, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Feb 17, 2007, 5:46 AM EST (10:46 UTC)
In effect from: Feb 17, 2007, 10:00 AM EST
Expired: Feb 17, 2007, 7:00 PM EST
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Counties DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 00:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1801 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 104 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 17, 3:03 AM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 3:03 AM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 17, 4:54 AM EST, 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
454 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-171600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
454 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AND COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE BURNING SHOULD BE
AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BRING HIGH WAVE AND SURF ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 8 FEET...ROUGH
SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SOME POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DANGEROUS WITH WINDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HIGH WAVES AND ROUGH
SEAS FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

ALSO...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
FLORIDA FOR WHICH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE
CASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL
DESCEND UPON THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

IF CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PREVAILS THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANOTHER FREEZING EVENT ON MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF
INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-171600-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
454 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AND COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL WESTERN FLORIDA. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
SARASOTA...MANATEE AND PINELLAS WHERE THE WIND REGIME MAY HELP IN
PREVENTING EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOW RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE DAY.

WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BRING HIGH WAVE AND SURF ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 8
FEET...ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT AND SOME POSSIBLE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH WINDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HIGH WAVES AND ROUGH
SEAS FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

ALSO...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
FLORIDA FOR WHICH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT THE COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

IF CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PREVAILS THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES OF
EXPERIENCING ANOTHER FREEZING EVENT ON MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF
INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 17, 5:46 AM EST	Fire Weather Watch	TBW	DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Polk, Sumter	10 hr
Feb 17, 3:48 PM EST	Fire Weather Watch	TBW	DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Pinellas, Polk, Sumter	50 hr
Feb 17, 3:48 PM EST	Red Flag Warning	TBW	DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Polk, Sumter	27 hr
Feb 17, 4:00 PM EST	Freeze Watch	TBW	DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Polk, Sumter	41 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007 Every red flag warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.